Warren Buffett's Portfolio Moves Suggest He's Preparing for a Downturn

A look at Buffett's latest 13F report

Author's Avatar
May 18, 2020
Article's Main Image

Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, Financial) (BRK.B, Financial) filed its 13F report for the three months to the end of March at the end of last week. The report revealed that the Oracle of Omaha made some significant changes to his equity portfolio during the first three months of 2020.

It should be noted that this report does not contain any significant details about Berkshire's airline holding sales, as these were mostly conducted during the first few weeks of April and thus will be reported as part of the second quarter.

Despite the significant market volatility seen during March, Buffett did not add to any of his holdings substantially during the month. In fact, I have noticed that he's been a net seller of equities so far this year.

According to Berkshire's first-quarter filing, the group divested two positions entirely. These were not significant holdings, so Buffett's portfolio managers likely instigated the trades. The conglomerate sold its 312,000 shares of Travelers Companies Inc (TRV, Financial) and its 227,000 shares of Phillips 66 (PSX, Financial), which accounted for 0.02% and 0.01% of the portfolio, respectively.

One position I think it highly likely that the Oracle of Omaha pulled the trigger on himself was the conglomerate's sale of part of its Goldman Sachs (GS, Financial) holding. Berkshire sold 10 million shares of the Wall Street giant, or 84% of its position in the stock, during the first quarter. Previously, the position accounted for just under 1% of the overall equity portfolio. At the end of last year, this position was worth $2.3 billion and gave Berkshire ownership of 2.9% of the investment bank.

Buffett has had a relationship with Goldman Sachs for almost as long as he has been an investor. He bailed out the investment bank in 2008, providing $5 billion in preferred stock, which earned Berkshire about $500 million a year in dividends.

The two parties renegotiated this deal in 2013. Buffett became one of Goldman's most significant shareholders as a result. At the time of this deal, the CEO of Berkshire said, "We intend to hold a significant investment in Goldman Sachs, a firm that I did my first transaction with more than 50 years ago." With this being the case, the fact that he has decided to sell is a curious development.

Berkshire also decided to reduce its position in JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Financial) during the first quarter. It trimmed its holding from 1.94% of total shares outstanding to 1.88%.

The Oracle of Omaha has has also sold shares of Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF). Berkshire's 13F shows that the conglomerate sold 3.2% of its position in the credit card provider during the three months to the end of March.

In my opinion, there were two very notable thinkgs that did not happen in the quarter. First of all, the fact that Buffett did not take advantage of the March market decline in any sizeable way caught my attention. Secondly, he didn't sell any shares of Wells Fargo (WFC, Financial). Buffett has been gradually reducing his position in the bank over the past year or so. Based on this trend, I thought he would have continued to do so this year. However, there's been no change so far.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in Wells Fargo and Berkshire Hathaway.

Read more here:

Not a Premium Member of GuruFocus? Sign up for a free 7-day trial here.