John Hussman: 12 Things I Believe

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Dec 20, 2010
In this week’s market commentary, John Hussman lists 12 things he believes to substantiate his thesis that current US stock market is “characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has rarely been resolved well”.


According to him, the market is positioned to deliver terrible return in the coming decade (Item No. 11):
Based on a variety of valuation methods that have a strong historical correlation with subsequent long-term market returns, we estimate that the S&P 500 is presently priced to achieve a total return averaging just 3.6% annually over the coming decade.


And his model has been pretty much on the bull’s eye historically:


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So ignore Hussman's advice at one's own peril.


Read the full text of Hussman’s weekly market commentary here


Hussman hedges his portfolio through options on stock indices. Typically, he maintains a long position portfolio. When the times are bad for stocks, he relies on the outperformance of his chosen stocks over the stock indices to deliver positive results.


Check out his stock portfolio by clicking on John Hussman.