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Jeffrey Currie – Providing Some Free Goldman Sachs Commodity Advice

May 16, 2011 | About:

I’m sure over the past few months you have noticed Goldman Sachs making much publicized calls on the direction of commodities, oil in particular.

First they called for a correction in the price of oil, recommending that clients take money out of the sector. And then immediately after that correction Goldman came out with a long-term bullish call indicating they see the oil market getting very tight early in 2012.

Must be nice to make directional calls on a weekly basis!

The man behind Goldman’s commodity team spoke with Bloomberg and provided some interesting comments.


Some observations:

- Goldman remains bullish but thought the market had got ahead of itself.

- Structurally bullish (which they are) means that looking out 6 to 12 months they think that demand is going to be outpacing supply drawing down inventories.

- Still cautious near term expecting volatility as the macro data is mixed and there is still a cloud over China.

- Expects that cloud over China to disappear as inflation comes off due to monetary policy at which point commodity markets should get very bullish.

- Thinks the worst of emerging market inflation is behind us.

- Thinks recent oil sell-off made sense as some of the concern over Middle East conflict especially in Saudi Arabia had eased.

- Once volatility comes out of oil expects upward trend to resume.

- Near term likes gold and agriculture.

- Thinks gold prices sovereign default risk which supports prices. Sees $1,600 this year and $1,700 next year.

- Agriculture already has physically tight markets (in contrast to oil which will be tight in 6 to 12 months). Any type of weather shock will cause big price moves as inventory is so low

- Copper has been de-stocked in China, which has led to lower prices as demand in the market is eased. Expects that to have basically finished. Thinks close to a near term bottom.

- On IEA trimming 2011 demand, thinks as soon as prices ease from $4 per gallon prices simply pop back up again

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