PACCAR Stock Appears To Be Significantly Overvalued

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GF Value
Apr 11, 2021
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The stock of PACCAR (NAS:PCAR, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $93.36 per share and the market cap of $32.4 billion, PACCAR stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for PACCAR is shown in the chart below.

PACCAR GF Value Chart

Because PACCAR is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which is estimated to grow 1.07% annually over the next three to five years.

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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. PACCAR has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.46, which is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of PACCAR at 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of PACCAR is fair. This is the debt and cash of PACCAR over the past years:

debt and cash

It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. PACCAR has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $18.7 billion and earnings of $3.74 a share. Its operating margin is 8.37%, which ranks better than 69% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of PACCAR at 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of PACCAR over the past years:

Revnue and Net Income

One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of PACCAR is -0.7%, which ranks worse than 67% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -6%, which ranks worse than 71% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, PACCAR's ROIC was 6.39, while its WACC came in at 5.60. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of PACCAR is shown below:

ROIC vs WACC

To conclude, the stock of PACCAR (NAS:PCAR, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 71% of the companies in the industry of Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. To learn more about PACCAR stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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