Market Timing

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Aug 19, 2011
The market reeks of fear. Fear is the greatest enemy one could ever wish to conquer, in comparison to Hope and Greed. It lives in stealth, and strikes mercilessly at the opportune time.


It seems that the smart money is betting on the domino effect of the contagion spread. According to New York-based Data Explorers, ratio of bullish to bearish investments in U.S. equities slipped from 13.2 (May 2011) to current 11.7, as juxtaposed to 6.5 back in September 2008 after Lehman’s debacle.


Uri Landesman, managing general partner of Platinum Partners LLP, opined that the high short interest level does not seem logical at this juncture.


It is an interesting fact that market mood is darkest just as markets turn around and vice versa. What is your position in the market now? Take a vote here and you can view your fellow voters’ results on the same page.


See, Hedge Funds Most Bearish Since 2009


Here are some excerpts:


“Hedge funds are sensing a European fiscal denouement on the horizon and they understand that contagion can hit the U.S. very quickly,” Steve Shafer, who helps manage $300 million as chief investment officer of Oklahoma City-based Covenant Investors, said in a telephone interview.


The ratio of bullish to bearish investments in U.S. equities has dropped to 11.7 from this year’s peak of 13.2 in May, according to New York-based Data Explorers, which provides research on short sales and stock lending. The measure sank to 6.5 in September 2008 after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy spurred the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.


“Being this short probably doesn’t make sense unless you think the market is going to set new lows, which at this point I do not,” Landesman, who helps oversee $1 billion at the New York-based hedge fund, wrote in an e-mail. “M&A, particularly in energy, software and biotech, will eventually lead the market higher, as long as earnings don’t fall apart.”