How much better could things get for Moderna Inc. (MRNA)? A lot, it seems.
After speaking with company CEO Stéphane Bancel, Jefferies analysts think 2022 sales could exceed this year for the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech.
The Jefferies team thinks Moderna revenues could hit between $15 billion to $30 billion in 2022. This year, the company’s shot is expected to push sales to $19 billion. The reasons behind projected growth beyond 2021 are threefold: the likelihood booster shots will be needed, more supply arrangements and the ability of Moderna to raise prices, wrote Jefferies.
Where the numbers come in will hinge on the pandemic’s progression, the fear of infection and whether Moderna can come up with supplemental products, including a combination shot against Covid and the flu.
The company is working on three potential booster shots being developed to stymie virus variants. One is a lower dose of its original vaccine, another to address the deviation first found in South Africa and the third a combination of the two.
It’s also thought that some countries will “want to ensure there are adequate orders” for booster shots as early as six months to a year after the first vaccines were administered, the Jefferies team said. Moderna is also developing a vaccine for seasonal influenza and will know more about its effectiveness by year-end.
The company’s success and bright outlook have led its shares to achieve some eye-popping numbers in the past year, going from just over $54 to $206, a gain of 280%. When analysts chimed in on the stock in May, they weren’t quite as bullish as one might expect. Eight rated it a buy or strong by while an equal number pegged it as a hold or underperform, reported Yahoo Finance. The high target estimate for the shares was $231.
To help meet the demand for its Covid vaccine, Moderna is ramping up production with the help of outside sources. An agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO, Financial) should yield hundreds of millions of doses, with production expected to get underway in the third quarter.
Recently Moderna stuck a deal with contract manufacturer Lonza Group Ltd. (XSWX:LONN), which will help produce Moderna’s drug substance at its Netherlands facility. Moderna has also arranged with South Korea’s Samsung Biologics Co. Ltd. (XKRX: 207940) to make hundreds of millions of doses for countries outside the U.S. Others helping with the manufacture of the vaccine include Recipharm AB (OSTO:RECI B), Catalent Inc. (CTLT, Financial), Sanofi (SNY) and Baxter International Inc. (BAX).
