The stock of Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $10.78 per share and the market cap of $9.7 billion, Gold Fields stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Gold Fields is shown in the chart below.
Because Gold Fields is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 14.2% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 8.64% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company’s financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Gold Fields has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.45, which which ranks worse than 81% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The overall financial strength of Gold Fields is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Gold Fields is fair. This is the debt and cash of Gold Fields over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Gold Fields has been profitable 6 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $3.9 billion and earnings of $0.81 a share. Its operating margin of 38.02% better than 90% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Gold Fields’s profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of Gold Fields over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Gold Fields is 14.2%, which ranks better than 79% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 28.4%, which ranks better than 71% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry.
Another way to evaluate a company’s profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Gold Fields’s ROIC was 14.94, while its WACC came in at 13.57.
To conclude, the stock of Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 71% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. To learn more about Gold Fields stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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