The stock of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE:RDS.A, 30-year Financials) is believed to be fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $40.09 per share and the market cap of $153.3 billion, Royal Dutch Shell PLC stock shows every sign of being fairly valued. GF Value for Royal Dutch Shell PLC is shown in the chart below.
Because Royal Dutch Shell PLC is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. Royal Dutch Shell PLC has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.30, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s financial strength as 4 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Royal Dutch Shell PLC over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Royal Dutch Shell PLC has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $176.2 billion and loss of $4.14 a share. Its operating margin is -12.60%, which ranks worse than 69% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Overall, the profitability of Royal Dutch Shell PLC is ranked 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Royal Dutch Shell PLC over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus’ research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company’s stock. If a company’s business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 71% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -13.4%, which ranks worse than 68% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry.
Another way to evaluate a company’s profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s ROIC was -5.47, while its WACC came in at 6.29.
In summary, The stock of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE:RDS.A, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 68% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. To learn more about Royal Dutch Shell PLC stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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