Having faced more than its fair share of challenges in recent years, many of them self-inflicted, Boeing Co. (BA, Financial) has struggled to get back on track. After years stuck in the doldrums, investors’ spirits have been buoyed somewhat over the past few months amid multiplying signs that a turnaround may be at hand. Wall Street has also turned bullish of late, as I discussed last week, with several analysts issuing forecasts of clear skies ahead.
With the 737 MAX recertification process largely resolved at long last, the worst may indeed be over for Boeing. Yet while Boeing may have vanquished that particular demon, others continue to haunt it, the long-delayed Starliner spacecraft foremost among them.
A comedy of errors
For a while, it seemed as if the race to develop the next manned spacecraft would be a close race. Boeing was running neck-and-neck with SpaceX in a contest pitting aerospace stalwart against ambitious upstart. In 2017, Boeing’s then-CEO Dennis Muilenburg threw down the gauntlet, claiming that Starliner would beat SpaceX’s Crew Dragon to space, and then to Mars. A lot has changed since then, and, in Boeing’s case, not for the better.
SpaceX pulled ahead of Boeing in 2019 when it completed a successful unmanned test of the Crew Dragon capsule. Boeing attempted the same feat in December 2019, but the test flight went disastrously wrong thanks to faulty software. The post-flight autopsy revealed the software bugs, but Boeing initially hoped they could be corrected quickly in order to make a second flight attempt in March 2020. However, the issues proved far more complicated than initially believed, which forced Boeing to move the timing of its second orbital flight test yet again.
Subsequent delays meant that Starliner only geared up for its second test flight in August 2021. However, this too was scrubbed when it emerged that several of the propulsion valves needed to maneuver the spacecraft had been damaged, apparently by humidity. The issue is still being worked on by engineers from Boeing and NASA. Consequently, two years on from its ill-fated first attempt, Starliner has yet to try again. As of Dec. 13, NASA is still working with Boeing to resolve the issue so Starliner can fly in early 2022.
A question of credibility
Boeing’s troubles with Starliner remind me of the old adage that reputations can take lifetimes to build, but mere moments to destroy. As space policy expert Greg Autry observed in July, credibility is everything when it comes to human spaceflight:
“There is a lot of credibility at stake here. Nothing is more visible than space systems that fly humans.”
The delays and errors that have dogged Starliner have already done considerable reputational damage. Boeing’s standing as the world’s preeminent spaceflight company was unassailable just a few short years ago, yet recent events have led some to question whether Boeing is still up to the task of carrying humans to the stars. As the MIT Technology Review discussed back in August, the delays and technical issues may already have undermined confidence in Starliner:
“Starliner is a vehicle designed to take people into space, but these problems may erode confidence that the spacecraft can keep human lives safe during a mission. NASA had hoped to have multiple options to choose from to take astronauts into space so it can focus on deep space missions to the moon and Mars, but so far SpaceX is the only American company that can fulfill these needs. Boeing has pinned its commercial spaceflight hopes on Starliner, but it’s hard to imagine many customers lined up to fly on a spacecraft that has hit so many snags.”
Boeing has been a trusted NASA partner since the agency was founded, but the goodwill it has banked over the decades is looking increasingly depleted. While Boeing can still lean on its deep NASA ties and expansive political network to keep Starliner in the running for now, it will eventually have to deliver the goods.
A high stakes games
If Boeing can make Starliner work, it could yet reclaim its place as a leader in spaceflight. However, as the MIT Technology Review pointed out on Aug. 4, Boeing can ill afford another failure:
“Should Boeing succeed, it catapults to a select group of private companies capable of taking humans into low Earth orbit. Should the company’s second Starliner mission fail, however, it could be catastrophic to its space industry hopes and dreams.”
An awful lot is now riding on Starliner’s next attempt. Boeing may yet prove the doubters wrong, but it is running out of chances, in my opinion. Either way, 2022 looks set to mark a turning point for Boeing’s manned spaceflight aspirations.
Disclosures: No positions.
