Guess what ? Roubini is bearish on the global economy. Here are his main comments
- Good news that the Greek CDS holders will get paid, as debt holders need to be able to have protection for investments
- Thinks oil prices are going to continue to go higher if not because of actual conflict, then on the continued rhetoric with Iran
- American economic data is actually quite mixed, not as positive as is being reported
- The entire Middle East (Syria, Yemen, minorities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt etc) are in a serious situation of political risk
- The situation in Greece is desperate. Recession is becoming a depression, with 20% plus unemployment and 50% unemployment in the young. They need to leave the Euro so that they can devalue their currency
- After Greece, Portugal is next on the need for restructuring list
- Also thinks China is slowing, and quarter over quarter growth could only be 5% or 6%. Much of it related to slowing real estate. China will react with monetary easing, which will push Chinese problems out to the future. A real hard landing is more likely next year or the year over
- Went overweight equities in January, and has now gone back to market weighting after the rally year to date
- Good news that the Greek CDS holders will get paid, as debt holders need to be able to have protection for investments
- Thinks oil prices are going to continue to go higher if not because of actual conflict, then on the continued rhetoric with Iran
- American economic data is actually quite mixed, not as positive as is being reported
- The entire Middle East (Syria, Yemen, minorities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt etc) are in a serious situation of political risk
- The situation in Greece is desperate. Recession is becoming a depression, with 20% plus unemployment and 50% unemployment in the young. They need to leave the Euro so that they can devalue their currency
- After Greece, Portugal is next on the need for restructuring list
- Also thinks China is slowing, and quarter over quarter growth could only be 5% or 6%. Much of it related to slowing real estate. China will react with monetary easing, which will push Chinese problems out to the future. A real hard landing is more likely next year or the year over
- Went overweight equities in January, and has now gone back to market weighting after the rally year to date
