Research In Motion: Hold for Now

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Mar 27, 2012
For those of us who remember working on a Commodore 64 or showing off lunch box sized cell phones the introduction of smaller more efficient computers has not been taken for granted. Today where our computers are no longer desk bound and our cell phones are smarter than our first computers the public wants smaller, thinner, brighter. Once renowned rising star Research In Motion (RIMM, Financial) is now struggling to remain competitive against rock stars such as Apple and Google.


The delayed launch of the 2012 Blackberry 10 smart phone is disappointing and looks like it wont be released until September of this year. However you don’t need to read stats on the Blackberry to understand its failings in the market place. It is obvious to anyone who has used a Blackberry versus an iPhone it comes down to survival of the fittest, or rather the survival of the most apps. Of course the Blackberry does boast 35,000 apps and over 1 billion apps have been downloaded but this is a drop in the bucket compared to the iPhones over 500,000 apps.


Research in Motion will also be releasing Mobile Fusion and two new Curve handsets to be introduced this summer. Though it is losing momentum in the United States they are the number one smart phone provider throughout the Latin American market.


Research in Motion has been afloat in troubled waters and with the release of the less than impressive PlayBook Tablet the future seems rocky at best. Critics have slammed the PlayBook for its inaccessibility to email, address books and the like, unless the tablet is linked to a Blackberry. In a world gone app crazy the Apple iPad accommodates our insatiability with over 65,000 apps the PlayBook on the other hand offers up a paltry 3,000 apps.


Word on the proverbial street is that Research In Motion Ltd will release a 7-inch 3G+PlayBook in April and later in December of this year will introduce a 10-inch LTE version. The current years sales for the PlayBook tablet have been weak, within the fiscal third quarter they sold only 150,000 tablets. This small total has been reflected in retailers slashing the prices of PlayBook’s by hundreds of dollars in some cases.


Not fairing well holding 28.9% of the OS smart phone market however PlayBook hopes to gain momentum by partnering up with Google apps to be available on the PlayBook. This may be a case of too little too late. Research in Motion Ltd has underperformed the S&P by 85% and the future is questionable. In the fourth quarter they fell 11.5% or $1.82 keeping it looming around $13.00.


The long drawn out delay in launching the Blackberry 10 smart phone is a major thorn in the company’s side leaving projections for 2013 falling again to $1.40. Vision is paramount in technology and this delay warrants suspicion and caution. Fashionably late is no longer fashionable when it’s too late. Many think this may be the beginning of the end.


Rumor has it that Apple and Microsoft may be interested in acquiring Research In Motion Ltd and in every rumor there is generally a spark of truth but how realistic would such a merger be? Stock in RIM has steadily declined from $70 at the beginning of the year in 2011 to around the $25 today and continuing its march south.


Research In Motion Ltd has not given credence to this rumor nor does there seem to be an invitation for a merger of any kind. RIM stands behind its business model and the improvements made to the soon to be released Blackberry. Many fear its business model has no true strategy and they lack enough patents to have anywhere else to go but down. Regardless of intention the bigger dogs are forcing Research In Motion Ltd off the porch.


The competition to gain a foothold in the smart phone/tablet market is fierce. Projections for the first quarter of 2012 show Samsung as the frontrunner with roughly 24% market share and Apple iPhones trailing not far behind at about 23% share. Google cuts a slice at a whooping 52% share and Research in Motion Ltd grabs an unimpressive 8% (platform share).


With financial estimations and predictions looking grim it is fair to note that Research In Motion Ltd. has outperformed the average consensus leaving a small ray of hope for this struggling company. However, coupled with decreasing numbers, increasing product delays and lack of product popularity the small ray of hope has really turned into a drip. During the first quarter of the 2012 fiscal year Research in Motion Ltd. was at a $1.33 per share or $695 million net income this in comparison with the previous year when shares were at $1.39 and net income was $769 million.


Over and over again the analysts and the market itself does not speak favorably in regards to the uncertain future of Research In Motion Ltd.’s ability to maintain a foothold in this soaring smart phone/tablet market. The competition is far too aggressive, more patent rich and in short more talented. It has great insecurities, however. many executives believe strongly in RIM’s new and improved platform with emphasis on the revamped Blackberry.


Research In Motion CEO Thorsten Heins, who has taken the reins fairly recently, contends that RIM’s new commitment toward market share growth, customer service and adapting management toward a global perspective will carry RIM into a positive fiscal year. Heins remains optimistic that RIM can make up the 4% loss of the smart phone market share, he does not feel they will dominate overnight but quarter-by-quarter they will regain a top position and a healthy portfolio.


In a world where technology moves faster than the speed of light Research In Motion is chugging along at a snails pace. The smart phone market has no time to wait up for stragglers; by the time they catch up who knows what may be next. RIM does have some exciting ideas for growth so I’m disinclined to write them off entirely. Only time will tell for this northern company that could and for Research In Motion time is running out.