Bigger is not always better, but it does not hurt.
That may be a reason investors will continue to favor Chicago-based drug giant AbbVie Inc. (ABBV, Financial). The company is expected to shoot up the ladder to become the biggest pharma company by sales in 2028, according to extended consensus forecasts from Evaluate Pharma.
Riding the coattails of Humira, the best-selling drug in history, AbbVie shares have doubled since 2017 and are up more than 25% in the past 12 months, to just over $146.
If AbbVie’s future looks bright, storm clouds could be gathering over Pfizer Inc. (PFE, Financial), Novartis AG (NVS, Financial) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY, Financial). That trio is expected to slip four, four and three places, respectively.
Pfizer, consistently in the top three based on revenue, will see its ranking tumble in great part due to waning demand for its Covid-19 vaccine. To help compensate for the void, the company is likely to use the billions generated by the shot to pursue acquisitions and licensing arrangements. Novartis may implement a similar strategy, employing the cash from the sale of its stake in Roche (RHHBY, Financial).
And then there’s Bristol-Myers Squibb. Shareholders may want to evaluate their positions in the company given the myriad of problems it faces. As pointed out in a previous discussion, the company has one of the stalest product lines of any drug company, with more than 70% of its 2021 sales coming from drugs that are a decade old.
The news is better for Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK, Financial) and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN, Financial), both of which are expected to capitalize on their cancer franchises to move up the rankings; by 2028, Merck’s Keytruda is expected to be the biggest selling drug, generating sales of $30 billion.
In the race to the top, AbbVie is expected to edge out Roche even though Humira loses patent protection after 2023. The demand for the drug will remain strong in spite of the loss, and the company expects increased contributions from Rinvoq, Skyrizi and Venclexta to make up for any shortfall.
The top spot could flip if Humira sales are hit harder than expected by generic competition. But Roche has some question marks of its own, specifically its cancer drug Tiragolumab, which failed to dazzle in clinical testing. However, its multiple sclerosis drug Orevus and hemophilia drug Hernlibra are expected to grow solidly during the next six years.
World's Biggest Drug Makers-2028
| Company | 2028 estimated sales ($ billion) | 2021-2028 rank |
| AbbVie | 65.7 | +1 |
| Roche | 65.0 | +3 |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Financial) | 62.3 | +1 |
| Merck | 59.7 | +3 |
| Pfizer | 57.1 | -4 |
| Novartis | 55.2 | -3 |
| AstraZeneca | 54.5 | +2 |
| Sanofi SA (SNY, Financial) | 50.8 | -- |
| Bristol-Myers | 44.3 | -3 |
| GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK, Financial) | 44.0 | -- |
Source: Evaluate Pharma
