Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is Royal Caribbean Group (RCL, Financial). The stock, which is currently priced at 98.65, recorded a gain of 2.84% in a day and a 3-month increase of 0.65%. The stock's fair valuation is $162.52, as indicated by its GF Value.
Understanding GF Value
The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors:
- 1. Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at.
- 2. GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth.
- 3. Future estimates of the business performance.
We believe the GF Value Line is the fair value that the stock should be traded at. The stock price will most likely fluctuate around the GF Value Line. If the stock price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher.
Risk Factors of Royal Caribbean Group
However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with Royal Caribbean Group should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Altman Z-score of 0.68, and the company's revenues and earnings have been on a downward trend over the past five years, which raises a crucial question: Is Royal Caribbean Group a hidden gem or a value trap?
These indicators suggest that Royal Caribbean Group, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.
Understanding the Altman Z-score
Before delving into the details, let's understand what the Altman Z-score entails. Invented by New York University Professor Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year time frame. The Altman Z-Score combines five different financial ratios, each weighted to create a final score. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial distress, while a score above 3 indicates a low risk.
A Snapshot of Royal Caribbean Group's Operations
Royal Caribbean is the world's second-largest cruise company, operating 64 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry, with 10 more ships on order through 2026. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, allowing it to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.
