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Holly LaFon
Holly LaFon
Articles (7841) 

Ken Fisher for Forbes - Meet The Magic Indicator: The LEI Don't Lie

November 11, 2013 | About:

It just won’t happen. Except for the euphoric end of bull market peaks, folks always fear recession ahead—more so right now due to the government shutdown hangover and the eventual end of quantitative easing.

Relax! There is a basically foolproof technique to know if a recession may come any time soon. Right now that method says, “No way.”

Once upon a time, way back even before John Maynard Keynes was first expounding his “general” theory, Wesley C. Mitchell of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) was less interested in theories than in reliable indicators foretelling expansion versus contraction. Mitchell’s 1930s research developed the NBER’s leading economic indicator series (the LEI)—more recently managed by the Conference Board. It’s now called the Leading Economic Index but still known as the LEI.

Modified minutely since then, it has always fallen many months before any recession—always! A fall doesn’t ensure we’ll have a recession, but if it doesn’t fall, we won’t. It’s high and skyrocketing now—and rising in the other 11 countries and Europe for which it’s calculated. So relax! Believe in it, not the nonsensical, fear-based babble you hear. The LEI don’t lie. Visit the Conference Board’s Web site to check it out yourself.

Continue reading the article here.

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