Morning Brew: Morgan Stanley's S&P 500 Forecast, Nvidia Earnings, and Target's Price Cuts

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S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +44.00.

The S&P 500 futures are up eight points, trading 0.2% above fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 44 points, also 0.2% above fair value. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 28 points, trading 0.1% above fair value.

The stock market is set for a higher open, building on last week's gains. Big cap stocks are helping the positive trend, along with calm activity in Treasuries.

The 2-year note yield is unchanged at 4.82%, while the 10-year note yield is down one basis point to 4.41%.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Iran's Foreign Minister died in a helicopter crash, according to The New York Times. The market's response has been muted.

In corporate news:

  • Micron (MU, Financial): Upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley. Stock price: 128.05, +2.76, +2.2%
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Plans to introduce new AI features at a conference today, according to Reuters. Stock price: 421.37, +1.15, +0.3%
  • Apple (AAPL): Lowered iPhone prices in China, according to Reuters. Stock price: 189.07, -0.79, -0.4%
  • Li Auto (LI): Missed earnings by RMB0.54 and revenue projections; guided Q2 revenues below consensus. Stock price: 23.85, -1.04, -4.2%
  • Old Dominion (ODFL): Decreased quarterly cash dividend to $0.26/share from $0.52/share. Stock price: 182.00, -1.07, -0.6%
  • NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial): Stifel raised its price target to $1,085 from $910. Stock price: 937.21, +12.60, +1.4%

Reviewing overnight developments:

Today's News

Morgan Stanley's equity strategist Mike Wilson has revised his outlook for the S&P 500, predicting a slight increase over the next year. Wilson, known for his bearish stance, now anticipates the index to reach 5,400 within 12 months, which is around 2% higher than current levels. His base case is built on a forecast of a 19x P/E multiple on 12-month forward EPS based on June 2026. Wilson also outlined a bull case of 6,300 and a bear case of 4,200, reflecting the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Target Corporation (TGT, Financial) announced plans to lower everyday prices on approximately 5,000 frequently shopped items. The retailer has already reduced prices on about 1,500 items, with more cuts planned throughout the summer. Categories affected include essential goods such as milk, meat, bread, and fresh produce. This move is expected to put pressure on competitors like Walmart (WMT, Financial), Costco (COST), and Kroger (KR).

Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) is in the spotlight as several investment firms have raised their price targets ahead of its quarterly earnings report. Shares rose 1.5% in premarket trading. Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis increased his price target to $1,100 from $850, citing potential upside in Nvidia's data center unit and the expected launch of new systems next year. Nvidia's report will be a key indicator for the AI sector.

Micron Technology (MU, Financial) was downgraded by Morgan Stanley to Equal-weight from Underweight, despite raising its price target to $130 from $98. Analysts noted that the firm has underestimated the impact of AI memory on Micron's valuation. While they remain cautious about the long-term discounted cash flow metrics, they acknowledge the current strength in high bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND markets.

Realty Income (O, Financial) declared a monthly dividend of $0.2625 per share, a 2.1% increase from the previous dividend. The forward yield is now 5.71%. The dividend is payable on June 14 to shareholders of record as of June 3.

Hess Corporation (HES, Financial) confirmed that proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis recommends shareholders approve the proposed merger with Chevron (CVX, Financial). This endorsement comes despite some reservations from another proxy firm, ISS, and Hess' fifth-largest investor, HBK Capital Management.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Financial) raised its full-year net interest income guidance to approximately $91 billion from $90 billion. The bank also adjusted its expense forecast to about $92 billion, up from the previous estimate of $91 billion. The update was provided ahead of its investor day event, where the firm emphasized its preparedness for the changing economic environment.

Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE, Financial) reported a 24% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue, reaching $145.9 million. The company also narrowed its net loss to $32.1 million from $43.1 million a year ago. CEO Nir Debbi highlighted the company's solid execution and continued growth, particularly in the Shopify Markets Pro segment.

Gray Television (GTN, Financial) announced plans to offer up to $1 billion worth of senior secured first lien notes due 2029. The proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt and repurchase outstanding senior notes. The offering is contingent on the closing of a credit agreement refinancing.

HP (HPQ, Financial) is expected to report fiscal second-quarter results on May 29, with Morgan Stanley citing an improving PC market as a potential upside. The firm has raised its revenue and earnings forecast, now expecting flat year-over-year revenue for fiscal 2024 and an Overweight rating with a $34 price target.

Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR, Financial) and Otsuka Pharmaceutical announced positive Phase 3 trial results for bempedoic acid in Japan. The trial met its primary endpoint, demonstrating significant reductions in LDL-C levels compared to placebo. The safety profile was consistent with previous trials, with no serious adverse events reported.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.