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Restoring the "Virtuous Cycle" of Economic Growth

March 17, 2014

During the past 14-year period, the S&P 500 has achieved a total return, including dividends, of just 3.3% annually. Even this outcome has been achieved only because market valuations have now been driven more than 100% above pre-bubble historical norms, based on reliable measures that are highly correlated with subsequent market returns (for a review, see It is Informed Optimism to Wait for the Rain). We emphasize reliabilitybecause there are countless measures that Wall Street analysts prefer to use, particularly those that make stocks seem reasonably valued. The problem is that most have very little relationship with actual subsequentmarket returns. When evaluating anyone’s valuation claim, you should always ask – how does this measure actually relate to subsequent market returns when it is evaluated over decades of market history?

Over the same 14-year period, real U.S. GDP has grown by just 1.8% annually, while real gross private investment has crawled at just 1% annually. The primary growth area of the economy has been total public debt, which has surged at 8% annually, driving the outstanding amount of total public debt to 99% of GDP.

Of course, the Federal Reserve has absorbed trillions of this debt, which has allowed federal debt held by the public to stay closer to 70% of GDP. As the Fed buys that debt, it pays for it by creating currency and bank reserves (monetary base) that must be held by someone in the economy at each point in time. In aggregate, this cash doesn’t represent an untapped economic resource that is waiting to be deployed, but is instead a receipt for economic resources that have already been deployed. The cash held by any individual (over and above debt that is owed) is simply evidence that at some point in the past, they consumed less than the full value of their own output, so that someone else could consume more than the value of their own output.

In the future, these IOUs can be used to claim new production at some point in time (which does not have to be immediate), allowing the holders to consume more output than they produce, but only by requiring others to consume less output than they produce. In short, all of this cash does not represent aggregate wealth. Instead, it is a placeholder that determines how future production will be allocated.

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