The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its outlook for global oil demand growth, lowering forecasts for the third month in a row. OPEC's latest monthly report, released from its Vienna headquarters, predicts global oil demand at 104.1 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight reduction from the previous estimate of 104.2 million barrels per day. This forecast suggests a daily demand growth of 1.9 million barrels, down from 2 million barrels this year.
OPEC attributed the downward revision to actual data and lower expectations in certain regions. Additionally, the organization adjusted its 2025 demand forecast to 105.8 million barrels per day, showing a reduced growth rate of 1.6 million barrels daily, as it moves away from its earlier bullish stance.
Notably, despite OPEC's repeated adjustments, its projections remain higher than those of Wall Street banks and trading companies. OPEC's estimates are also close to Saudi Aramco’s upper forecasts and nearly double the International Energy Agency's (IEA) predictions.
In its September statement, OPEC+ indicated plans to gradually lift the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut starting in December. However, with weakening consumption and rising supply in the Americas, there are doubts regarding the continuation of this increase plan.
Oil prices, bolstered by Middle East conflicts, have recently rebounded to around $77 per barrel. However, this price level may not satisfy some member countries. Reports also suggest Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial $100 per barrel target, considering increasing production despite potential long-term price declines.
Earlier this month, the government in eastern Libya lifted force majeure on all oil fields and ports, resuming production and export operations.
