Goldman Sachs projects that High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) will experience a supply shortage next year, particularly with SK Hynix leading the AI memory market. Despite fears of potential oversupply by 2025, the investment bank believes these concerns are premature. Major global cloud computing companies continue to ramp up investments in storage devices, reducing the likelihood of excess supply.
HBM is a crucial storage technology for high-performance computing and AI applications, with demand surging significantly in recent years. The ongoing development of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and expectations of tight HBM supply from major clients are expected to drive growth. Additionally, supplier inventories are relatively healthy, and the DRAM market is poised for a mid-cycle inventory adjustment in the coming quarters.
In contrast, the DRAM market outlook remains complex. Some investors worry about a prolonged downturn due to rising inventory levels and increased supply from other countries. However, Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting that despite high customer inventory levels, healthy supplier stock could stabilize the market with a mid-cycle adjustment.
Samsung Electronics, a major global memory chip player, has seen its stock valuation approach historic lows, drawing investor interest. Although the stock has recently dipped, investors believe there is limited downside. Attention is now on the company's upcoming third-quarter earnings report, which could provide insights into future market trends.
SK Hynix continues to attract investor interest, thanks to its strong performance in the HBM market. Investors expect HBM to remain in short supply until at least 2025, bolstering growth prospects for SK Hynix. The company is also planning to enhance its production capabilities with the construction of the M15X fab, expected to finish next year.
