1. How to use GuruFocus - Tutorials
  2. What Is in the GuruFocus Premium Membership?
  3. A DIY Guide on How to Invest Using Guru Strategies
Articles (160) 

Sell Cisco And Buy Alcatel Lucent Instead

April 27, 2014 | About:

Organizing supplies behemoth Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) has run into agitated times recently. Cisco had diminished its long haul development direction a year ago and there were apprehensions that it could be losing its business in the developing markets. In addition, the resurgence of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) appears to have further started apprehensions around Cisco speculators that the organization is losing its balance in the business sector. However is there a turnaround story in sight for Cisco? I don't think so. I will let you know the reasons why I think Cisco is a terrible financing, yet first we should investigate the organization's business.

Move In Progress

Cisco is transitioning from offering fittings like the majority of its companions to offering business results. The organization has sent almost $180 billion value of system supplies overall and the organization needs to influence this solid introduce base to make new fortunes.

Cisco's cloud organizing stage, Meraki, is likewise doing exceptionally well, developing in excess of 100% year-over-year and multiplying clients from 4,300 one quarter back to 9,600 in this quarter. The Meraki and Sourcefire acquisitions keep on performing admirably and have enhanced Cisco's position as a heading security organization, the one and only equipped for conveying an end-to-end compositional methodology.

Cisco is additionally concentrated on conveying worth to shareholders. In Q4 Fy12, Cisco had resolved to give back at least half of its free money stream yearly through profits and offer repurchases. In monetary 2013, it returned in excess of half of free money stream, and in the first a large portion of financial 2014, it returned more than 150% of free money stream to its shareholders.

Cisco's board has affirmed an expansion of $0.02 to the quarterly profit to $0.19 for every offer, an increment of around 12%, speaking to a yield of give or take 3.50%. This profit expansion, joined together with the foreseen offer repurchases in the second a large portion of the monetary year, would agreeably surpass a return of in excess of 100% for the full financial year of its free money stream.

Why Investors Should Stay Away

In any case there are sure things that go against Cisco. Generally, I accept Cisco has lost its path under CEO John Chambers. The organization's offer value has been very nearly stagnant in the most recent 10 years, failing to meet expectations the S&p 500 by a tremendous edge. The rich profit, which now has a yield of 3.50% on account of the falling offer value, has backed Cisco's offer or else it would've dove further. Also, the organization has constantly attempted to reimburse speculators by the method for offer buybacks and has used harshly $72 billion simultaneously.

Cisco has further chosen to acquire $8 billion through a bond deal to encourage offer buyback. While bulls may contend it is a great methodology given the low rate of investment, I don't think it will end up being gainful. Buybacks are useful for speculators, yet I accept Cisco is in urgent need of enhancing its income. The organization ought to utilize this money to create new business and buybacks don't make any sort of new income streams, and existing portions are seeing disturbing decreases in income as seen underneath:



(in millions)


(in millions)

Sequential Growth





NGN Routing




Service Provider Video








Data Center
















As should be obvious, Cisco's incomes over all portions are falling and the organization can't keep purchasing back shares for eternity. The organization needs to discover better approaches to enhance its business as opposed to using luxuriously on buyback programs.

The imperativeness of a developing business can't be disregarded as Cisco has fallen prey to its rivals. For example, the switch business was a key fragment for the organization. Be that as it may, it has surrendered piece of the pie to more modest adversaries like Alcatel-Lucent and Juniper (NYSE:JNPR). Alcatel-Lucent's income has become reliably in the most recent three years. The impact of a productive CEO is obviously obvious as Alcatel-Lucent has enhanced essentially in the most recent one year.

Alcatel-Lucent has seen twofold digit income development under the initiative of Michel Combes and is looking to get gainful on a feasible foundation by 2015. Alcatel's switch business has likewise enhanced incredibly and ought to keep on growing as the organization has tie-ups with a lot of people enormous name telecom players like AT&T (NYSE:T) and China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) for their 4g LTE system advancement.

Juniper then again, is more laid open to the switch business. The organization determines almost half of its income from switches and despite the fact that it is a much littler organization than Cisco, its deals have enhanced reliably. Truth be told, the organization conveyed record income of $1.27 billion, up 12% year-over-year, in the most recent reported quarter.


Cisco is looking to show signs of improvement in the long run yet it confronts impending tests. As I would see it, I think Cisco ought to think about putting resources into developing its business as opposed to using excessively on buybacks. The organization is confronting rivalry from different opponents, for example, Alcatel and Juniper, which makes speculation in development activities considerably more essential. Cisco had cut its development conjecture before the end of last year, and this is an alternate motivation behind why moguls ought to stay far from the stock.

Rating: 3.0/5 (4 votes)



Enjoylife premium member - 3 years ago

Is this article a joke?

Sam.deanj - 3 years ago    Report SPAM

Excellent analysis and too the point. Too bad I can't give ya 10 stars

Please leave your comment:

Performances of the stocks mentioned by FinanceGuru

User Generated Screeners

opadovaniP Median2 No DIV
cegdevelopmentthe best managers
cegdevelopmentprof managers
cegdevelopmentguru goals
cegdevelopmentguru holding
opadovaniFCF Growth
DBrizanROTA22nov2017 943p
pbarker4652 week
pbarker46E&P CDN
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)

GF Chat