Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla (TSLA, Financial), has made an optimistic prediction about the future of artificial intelligence (AI). During a recent virtual discussion at the Eighth Future Investment Initiative conference, Musk forecasted that AI capabilities will improve tenfold annually. This implies that AI could be 10,000 times more advanced in four years, potentially reaching 100,000 times the current capability.
Musk believes that AI could match all human abilities in about three years, by 2028 or 2029. Earlier this year, Musk suggested that AI might become smarter than all humans combined in the near future, tightening this prediction to within five years.
Other leaders in the AI industry, like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, have also expressed similar expectations. Amodei suggested that powerful AI could emerge as early as 2026, while Altman predicted superintelligent AI could appear within a few thousand days.
Musk emphasized the importance of AI safety, stating there is an 80% chance AI will have a positive impact, but a 10-20% chance of potential problems. He advocates for creating AI that passionately loves humanity and seeks human best interests. This stance differentiates him from OpenAI's Sam Altman.
Musk is actively developing AI-related products, such as fully self-driving cars and humanoid robots. He disclosed that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) vehicles could appear in California and Texas by mid-next year, and the Cybercab, a vehicle without steering wheels and pedals, is expected to go into production by 2026. The mass production of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is anticipated by 2026, earlier than previously planned, with individual units potentially priced between $20,000 and $25,000 by 2040.
Despite the enthusiasm from tech entrepreneurs like Musk, whether their AI optimism is justified remains to be seen. Investments in AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are substantial, but returns are uncertain. In contrast, technology giants like Meta and Microsoft are already seeing significant benefits from AI in their operations.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, during a recent earnings call, indicated that while building AI infrastructure might not appeal to investors in the short term, the opportunities are immense. Meta's AI spending is expected to rise significantly in the 2025 fiscal year.
Meanwhile, Huawei's founder Ren Zhengfei takes a more cautious view, acknowledging AI's unstoppable trend while indicating it won't surpass human capabilities within thirty years. Ren encourages young people to embrace the mission of shaping humanity's future and contribute positively to society.
