ASML, a leading company in the lithography machine sector, provided a positive forecast during its 2024 Investor Day. The company expects annual revenue to reach between 44 billion to 60 billion euros by 2030, with a gross margin of approximately 56% to 60%. This projection suggests a potential doubling in revenue from ASML’s 2023 earnings, which reported 27.559 billion euros in revenue and a net profit of 7.839 billion euros.
This announcement aims to reassure the market, particularly following ASML's third-quarter financial report, which showed revenue and profit in line with or exceeding expectations, despite lower-than-anticipated new orders. In the third quarter, ASML achieved a net sales figure of 7.5 billion euros and a net profit of 2.1 billion euros, both increasing year-on-year, with a gross margin of 50.8%. However, concerns have been raised over declining demand for lithography machines.
ASML emphasized the role of AI as a growth driver and opportunity for significant revenue and profit increases. The company’s CEO highlighted plans to advance EUV (extreme ultraviolet) technology and expand its product range to capitalize on AI opportunities. AI's rise is anticipated to drive productivity and innovation across various sectors, creating substantial opportunities for the semiconductor industry.
Global semiconductor sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with an estimated annual growth rate of about 9% between 2025 and 2030. ASML predicts an increase in EUV sales, with scalable technology offering cost benefits. Customers are expected to shift from multi-patterning to single-exposure processes using EUV, supporting advanced logic and DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) development. ASML forecasts a double-digit compound annual growth rate for EUV lithography equipment demand from 2025 to 2030.
The semiconductor equipment industry has shown growth, with Lam Research reporting third-quarter revenue of $4.17 billion, within its guidance range, despite a non-recovered NAND market. Applied Materials reported a 5% increase in third-quarter revenue to $6.78 billion, driven by AI demand. The broader semiconductor equipment market reflects differential growth, benefiting from AI and advanced process demand while facing pressure from storage markets.
Globally, the semiconductor market is still emerging from a cyclical bottom. Gartner's research vice president notes growth apart from AI chips is mainly due to price increases rather than demand surges. Nevertheless, ASML’s CFO emphasized strong demand for lithography equipment driven by growth in semiconductor markets and future process nodes.
Looking ahead, AI is expected to remain a crucial factor driving the semiconductor industry.
