Why Toast (TOST) Stock is Dropping Today

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Mar 13, 2025

Shares of Toast (TOST, Financial) fell 6.44% today, with the stock price declining to $32.54. The downward movement was triggered by concerns about potential tariffs, following President Trump's announcement of a possible 200% tariff on alcoholic beverages imported from the European Union in response to the EU's existing 50% tariff on whisky.

Toast Inc (TOST, Financial), a US-based restaurant technology firm, has seen its shares decline in light of recent trade tensions. Despite this, the company stands strong with a market capitalization of $18.71 billion. With a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 12.05, Toast appears modestly overvalued according to its GF Value, which estimates the stock's fair value at $28.45. This suggests that the current market price might not align with intrinsic valuations.

The company exhibits solid financial health, underlined by three medium warning signs and one severe warning sign. One concern is that revenue growth has slowed over the past 12 months, which may affect future profitability. Nevertheless, Toast's strong financial strength is evidenced by an Altman Z-score of 14.8 and a high Piotroski F-Score of 8, indicating a very healthy situation.

In terms of profitability, Toast's return on invested capital (ROIC) is less than its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could indicate inefficiencies in capital allocation. Despite the insider selling trend, where 356,692 shares were sold over the past three months, the company remains fundamentally sound with a solid financial position and positive cash flow growth of 197.7% over the past year.

Toast's growth trajectory is notable, particularly with a 5-year revenue growth rate of 44.6%. However, investors should exercise caution due to the company's recent volatility and the broader market uncertainties. As Toast navigates these challenges, it is crucial for investors to stay informed about potential tariff impacts and to assess whether the current valuation reflects its growth potential and financial robustness.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.