According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey, the number of computer programming jobs in the U.S. has reached its lowest level since 1980, primarily due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). In 1980, there were over 300,000 computer programming positions, which peaked at over 700,000 during the early 2000s internet boom. Today, that number has halved, despite a 75% increase in overall U.S. employment over the past 45 years.
Computer programmers differ from software developers, who act as liaisons between programmers and engineers, designing custom solutions. Software developer jobs are expected to grow by 17% from 2023 to 2033, while computer programming opportunities are projected to decline by about 10%.
Since 2023, the 12-month average employment in the computer programming sector has decreased by 27.5%, coinciding with the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT the previous year. ChatGPT can handle coding tasks without requiring users to have detailed knowledge of the code being written. The correlation between the decline in programming jobs and the rise of AI tools suggests that this emerging technology may be starting to replace some coding experts.
Some companies have acknowledged AI's role in hiring and firing decisions. For instance, Klarna ceased hiring after developing a chatbot with OpenAI, claiming the bot could perform the work of 700 full-time employees, although this pertained to customer service rather than engineering tasks.
Despite concerns, some experts believe the changes in programming jobs are not necessarily negative. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna stated that human programmers will still be in demand, even as AI automates coding tasks. Krishna predicts AI will be able to write 20% to 30% of code, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei estimates up to 90%. Krishna suggests that programmers will take on more complex tasks, with AI handling simpler, time-consuming ones, boosting productivity and company performance.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg noted that AI could perform the coding work of mid-level engineers, indicating potential shifts in programmer employment.
