Mader Group (ASX:MAD) in Sohra Peak 2024 Q3

Strategic Accumulation Amid Market Misjudgment

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Apr 14, 2025
Summary
  • Conservative FY25 guidance led to a market sell-off, creating a buying opportunity.
  • Strong growth potential in Australia and North America, with expected outperformance.
  • Management's history of under-promising and over-delivering on growth targets.
  • Attractive valuation with a P/E multiple of 16-17x and expected FCF growth of 15-20% CAGR.

In the Sohra Peak 2024 Q3 fund letter, Mader Group (ASX:MAD, Financial) was highlighted as a key position where the fund took advantage of a market sell-off to accumulate shares. The sell-off was triggered by the company's FY25 guidance, which was perceived as conservative by the market. However, Sohra Peak Capital believes that Mader Group's management has a track record of setting conservative targets and subsequently exceeding them, as evidenced by past performance. The fund is optimistic about the company's growth prospects, particularly in Australia and North America, and views the current valuation as attractive.

"We think the market was wrong to take this forward-guidance, and any extrapolated reduction in long-term growth prospects, at face value. We believe instead that Mader Group’s management chose to be conservative in setting its FY25 guidance, and that the company’s long-term growth opportunity remains more than abundant." — Jonathan A. Cukierwar, Sohra Peak Capital, Q3 2024 Fund Letter

Read full letter at gurufocus Sohra Peak 2024 Q3 page.