Citi has revised its price target for Bumble Inc. (BMBL, Financial), reducing it from $6.80 to $4.80, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. This adjustment comes ahead of the internet sector's Q1 performance preview and reflects anticipated impacts from tariff dynamics, contributing to a weakening macroeconomic outlook.
According to Citi, sectors such as digital advertising and e-commerce are the most vulnerable to these changes, while areas like web development, small business solutions, and online dating are less impacted. The firm highlights companies like VeriSign (VRSN), Wix.com (WIX), Godaddy (GDDY), eBay (EBAY), and Criteo (CRTO) as possessing defensive qualities underpinned by robust fundamentals.
In contrast, Wayfair (W), The Trade Desk (TTD), Etsy (ETSY), and Bark (BARK) are considered more exposed to tariff-related challenges. These insights underscore the varying degrees of sensitivity within the digital sector to evolving economic policies and pressures.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 14 analysts, the average target price for Bumble Inc (BMBL, Financial) is $6.01 with a high estimate of $8.00 and a low estimate of $4.00. The average target implies an upside of 35.46% from the current price of $4.44. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Bumble Inc (BMBL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 19 brokerage firms, Bumble Inc's (BMBL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.9, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Bumble Inc (BMBL, Financial) in one year is $22.77, suggesting a upside of 412.84% from the current price of $4.44. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Bumble Inc (BMBL) Summary page.
BMBL Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 18, 2025
- Total Revenue: $262 million for Q4, at the high end of the outlook.
- Bumble App Revenue: $212 million, above the high end of the outlook, down 4% year-over-year.
- Total Paying Users: Grew 5% to 4.2 million in Q4.
- ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User): Declined 9% to $20.58.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $73 million for Q4, representing 28% margins.
- Free Cash Flow: $114 million for the year 2024.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $204 million at year-end 2024.
- Share Repurchase: $40 million worth of shares repurchased in Q4; $214 million for the full year 2024.
- Q1 2025 Revenue Outlook: Expected between $242 million and $248 million, a decrease of 7% to 10%.
- Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: Estimated between $60 million and $63 million, representing a margin of 25% at the midpoint.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Bumble Inc (BMBL, Financial) reported total revenue and adjusted EBITDA at the high end of their respective ranges for Q4 2024.
- The Bumble App revenue outperformed guidance, indicating strong performance in their core product.
- The company generated free cash flow of $114 million for the year, showcasing strong financial discipline.
- Bumble Inc (BMBL) has made significant progress on its product roadmap, focusing on innovation and customer experience.
- The introduction of new features like the Discover tab and AI-powered tools aims to enhance user engagement and safety.
Negative Points
- Bumble Inc (BMBL) reported a decline in ARPPU by 9% to $20.58, indicating challenges in monetization.
- The company expects a sequential decline in paying users in Q1 2025, due to ongoing ecosystem health initiatives.
- Badoo App and other revenue declined by 7%, reflecting challenges in diversifying revenue streams.
- The decision to sunset Fruitz and Official indicates a need to refocus resources, which may impact short-term growth.
- Bumble Inc (BMBL) anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins to contract in 2025 due to revenue headwinds and investments in product and technology.
