In a recent evaluation, Cantor Fitzgerald has initiated coverage on Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS, Financial), assigning an Overweight rating along with a price target of $44. The analysis highlights that the company's stock has been largely influenced by the challenges surrounding its leading treatment, Syfovre, within the geographic atrophy segment. Despite these hurdles, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasizes the potential of Apellis's drug, Empaveli, as a more effective treatment for C3 glomerulopathy compared to its competitor, Fabhalta. The firm also notes that multiple studies have demonstrated a clear link between proteinuria and the onset of kidney failure.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 20 analysts, the average target price for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) is $42.00 with a high estimate of $75.00 and a low estimate of $21.00. The average target implies an upside of 133.85% from the current price of $17.96. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 23 brokerage firms, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc's (APLS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) in one year is $223.93, suggesting a upside of 1146.83% from the current price of $17.96. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) Summary page.
APLS Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 28, 2025
- Total Revenue (Q4 2024): Approximately $213 million.
- SYFOVRE Revenue (Q4 2024): $168 million in US net product revenue.
- EMPAVELI Revenue (Q4 2024): $23 million in US net product revenue.
- Total Revenue (Full Year 2024): $781 million, nearly 100% increase compared to 2023.
- Cost of Sales (Q4 2024): $40.9 million.
- R&D Expenses (Q4 2024): $76.4 million.
- SG&A Expenses (Q4 2024): $121.5 million.
- Net Loss (Q4 2024): $36.4 million.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents (End of 2024): $411 million.
- SYFOVRE Sales (Since Launch): Nearly $900 million in less than two years.
- SYFOVRE Market Share (Q4 2024): Over 60% total market share.
- SYFOVRE Doses Delivered (Q4 2024): Approximately 94,000 doses.
- EMPAVELI Compliance Rate (Q4 2024): 97%.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- SYFOVRE achieved over 120% year-over-year US net revenue growth, with nearly $900 million in sales in less than two years.
- EMPAVELI showed positive Phase III results in rare kidney diseases, with plans for a potential launch in the second half of 2025.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) has a robust development pipeline, including a next-generation treatment for geographic atrophy combining SYFOVRE and APL-3007 siRNA.
- The company has secured preferred formulary positions for SYFOVRE with major payers, providing a competitive advantage.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) maintains a strong financial position with $411 million in cash and cash equivalents, and expects to achieve profitability with existing cash and future product sales.
Negative Points
- Temporary factors such as Medicare reverifications and winter storms are expected to affect SYFOVRE orders and net revenue in the first quarter of 2025.
- There is a reported funding gap at non-profit co-pay assistance organizations, leading to increased sample usage by retina specialists.
- The overall geographic atrophy market growth is tempered, with only a small percentage of diagnosed patients receiving treatment.
- Competitive pressure from IZERVAY, despite its label limitations, poses a challenge to SYFOVRE's market share.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) faces uncertainties regarding the timing of regulatory approvals and potential delays in launching EMPAVELI in new indications.
