KeyBanc has revised its price target for Boot Barn (BOOT, Financial), reducing it from $190 to $165. This adjustment follows a period of recent share reversion. Despite the change, the firm maintains an Overweight rating for the stock as it approaches its quarterly earnings report. KeyBanc remains confident in Boot Barn's ongoing momentum and is satisfied with its current financial estimates and fundamentals.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) is $158.31 with a high estimate of $200.00 and a low estimate of $100.00. The average target implies an upside of 52.22% from the current price of $104.00. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, Boot Barn Holdings Inc's (BOOT, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) in one year is $113.82, suggesting a upside of 9.44% from the current price of $104. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) Summary page.
BOOT Key Business Developments
Release Date: January 30, 2025
- Revenue Growth: Increased by 17% in the third quarter.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: Consolidated growth of 8.6%; stores increased 8.2%, e-commerce increased 11.1%.
- New Store Openings: 13 new stores opened in the quarter, bringing the total to 438 stores.
- Merchandise Margin Expansion: Expanded by 130 basis points.
- Earnings Per Diluted Share: $2.43, $0.36 above the high end of guidance.
- Net Sales: Increased 16.9% to $608 million.
- Gross Profit: Increased 20% to $239 million; gross profit rate increased 100 basis points to 39.3%.
- SG&A Expenses: $139 million or 22.9% of sales, decreased by 90 basis points as a percentage of net sales.
- Net Income: $75 million.
- Inventory: Increased 23% to $690 million.
- Cash Position: $153 million in cash with zero drawn on the $250 million revolving line of credit.
- Fiscal 2025 Outlook: Total sales expected to be $1.92 billion; same-store sales increase of 5.9%.
- Capital Expenditures: Expected to be $120 million.
- Store Expansion Plan: 21 planned store openings in the fourth quarter, totaling 60 new stores for the fiscal year.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) reported a 17% increase in revenue for the third quarter, with consolidated same-store sales growth of 8.6%.
- The company opened 13 new stores in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 39 new units, and plans to open 21 more in the fourth quarter.
- E-commerce sales grew by 11.1% in the third quarter, demonstrating strong online business performance.
- Merchandise margin expanded by 130 basis points due to supply chain efficiencies, better buying economies of scale, and growth in exclusive brand penetration.
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) raised its full-year guidance, expecting total sales to reach $1.92 billion, representing a 15% growth over fiscal 2024.
Negative Points
- The company faces potential risks from tariffs, particularly with 25% of its orders coming from Mexico, which could impact leather-soled cowboy boots.
- Work boots category underperformed compared to other segments, indicating room for improvement.
- Despite strong growth, the company anticipates some deleverage in buying occupancy and distribution center costs due to new store openings.
- The company is experiencing elevated inventory levels, which could pose a risk if not managed properly.
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) faces challenges in maintaining merchandise margin expansion as supply chain efficiencies may not continue to improve significantly.
