Oncocyte (OCX, Financial) has released promising new findings for its innovative blood-based test designed to assess transplant rejection. The study, titled “Association of Blood Donor-derived Cell-free DNA Levels with Banff Scores and Histopathological Lesions in Kidney Allograft Biopsies: Results From an Observational Study,” was co-authored by the company's own experts, Drs. Ekke Schuetz and Julia Beck, who are credited with developing the technology.
The results of the study are significant for Oncocyte's strategic objectives and hold scientific importance for the transplant sector. The research aimed to evaluate the absolute and relative values of donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) in various histopathological conditions and its correlation with Banff lesion scores. This study also investigated the use of Banff-based indices for activity and chronicity in kidney transplant recipients undergoing biopsies. These insights provide valuable data on the behavior of dd-cfDNA beyond just rejection scenarios.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 2 analysts, the average target price for OncoCyte Corp (OCX, Financial) is $4.50 with a high estimate of $5.00 and a low estimate of $4.00. The average target implies an upside of 39.75% from the current price of $3.22. More detailed estimate data can be found on the OncoCyte Corp (OCX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 4 brokerage firms, OncoCyte Corp's (OCX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for OncoCyte Corp (OCX, Financial) in one year is $2.54, suggesting a downside of 21.12% from the current price of $3.22. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the OncoCyte Corp (OCX) Summary page.
OCX Key Business Developments
Release Date: March 24, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- OncoCyte Corp (OCX, Financial) launched Graft Assure, a kidney transplant test, with leading transplant centers, enhancing their IVD product development.
- The company achieved a breakthrough designation for a drug from the FDA, signaling potential market expansion.
- OncoCyte Corp (OCX) published data showing their assay can detect organ rejection 11 months ahead of standard protocols, leading to Medicare claims expansion.
- The company attracted a strategic partner, Bio-Rad Laboratories, which participated in all three equity funding rounds, strengthening their financial position.
- OncoCyte Corp (OCX) successfully raised $29 million in February, ensuring a financial runway of over a year and supporting their clinical assay development.
Negative Points
- There are macro uncertainties around federal government actions that could affect OncoCyte Corp (OCX)'s timeline for FDA submissions.
- The company is not projecting any material revenue from their RUO product this year, indicating potential delays in revenue generation.
- OncoCyte Corp (OCX) faces competition from established lab-based competitors with a significant market presence.
- The FDA submission timeline has been pushed back by two quarters, partly due to uncertainties in the regulatory environment.
- The company anticipates higher cash burn in Q2 and Q3 due to bonuses and incremental sales and marketing expenses.
