For the first quarter of 2025, ESS reported a net income per diluted share of $3.16. This marks a decline from the $4.25 per share recorded in the same period of 2024. The decrease is primarily due to gains from the remeasurement of co-investments and legal settlements that were recognized in the first quarter of the previous year.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 22 analysts, the average target price for Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS, Financial) is $310.09 with a high estimate of $370.00 and a low estimate of $282.00. The average target implies an upside of 12.69% from the current price of $275.16. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms, Essex Property Trust Inc's (ESS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.7, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS, Financial) in one year is $285.84, suggesting a upside of 3.88% from the current price of $275.16. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) Summary page.
ESS Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 05, 2025
- Full Year Same-Property Revenue Growth: 3.3%
- Core FFO Growth: 3.8%
- Fourth Quarter Blended Lease Rate Growth: 1.6%
- Occupancy Rate in January: 96.3%
- Fourth Quarter Same-Property Revenue Growth: 2.6% year over year
- 2025 Forecasted Same-Property Revenue Growth: 3% at the midpoint
- 2025 Forecasted Blended Rent Growth: 3%
- 2025 Forecasted Same-Property Expense Growth: 3.75% at the midpoint
- 2025 Forecasted Same-Property NOI Growth: 2.7% at the midpoint
- 2025 Core FFO Midpoint: $15.81, equating to 1.3% year over year growth
- 2025 Structured Finance Income: Expected to represent around 4% of core FFO
- 2025 Planned Acquisitions: $1 billion in new apartment communities
- Liquidity: Over $1 billion
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS, Financial) achieved full year same-property revenue growth of 3.3% and core FFO growth of 3.8%, both exceeding the high end of their original guidance.
- The company successfully shifted into growth mode by acquiring and consolidating 13 properties at above market yields.
- Demand picked up in January, lifting occupancy by 40 basis points to 96.3%, and concessions improved to less than half a week on average.
- Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) forecasts a 3% market rent growth for 2025, with Seattle and San Jose projected to lead the portfolio at approximately 4%.
- The company has over $1 billion in liquidity and ample sources of available capital, positioning it well for future opportunities.
Negative Points
- The company faces potential regulatory impacts in Los Angeles, including an eviction moratorium and rent freeze proposals, which could affect revenue growth.
- Higher interest expenses are expected due to the refinancing of $500 million in unsecured bonds at a higher rate than the maturing bonds.
- Lower structured finance income is anticipated as a result of redemptions in 2024 and those expected in 2025.
- The company anticipates a 3.75% same-property expense growth at the midpoint, driven by factors such as real estate taxes and utilities.
- Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) faces challenges in the transaction market with competitive bidding and negative leverage in year one for high-quality properties.
