Recent trading activity indicates a bearish outlook for YPF (YPF, Financial), as evidenced by the higher-than-expected volume of put options. A total of 1,271 puts have changed hands, surpassing typical trading levels by 10%. Notably, the January 2027 $15 puts and the May 2025 $29 puts are the most active, comprising nearly 1,100 of these contracts. The Put/Call Ratio stands at a significant 3.18, showing a strong preference for puts over calls. Additionally, at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) has increased by over two points within the day. Investors are also eyeing the company’s earnings report, anticipated on May 7th.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for YPF SA (YPF, Financial) is $46.33 with a high estimate of $62.00 and a low estimate of $33.00. The average target implies an upside of 50.76% from the current price of $30.73. More detailed estimate data can be found on the YPF SA (YPF) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 13 brokerage firms, YPF SA's (YPF, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for YPF SA (YPF, Financial) in one year is $38.08, suggesting a upside of 23.92% from the current price of $30.73. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the YPF SA (YPF) Summary page.
YPF Key Business Developments
Release Date: March 07, 2025
- Revenue: $19.3 billion in 2024, marking an 11% annual increase.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $4.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 15% annual increase.
- Net Income: $2.4 billion gain in 2024, compared to a loss of $1.3 billion in 2023.
- Net Debt: Increased to $7.4 billion, a 9% increase from 2023.
- Net Leverage Ratio: Reduced to 1.6 times.
- Free Cash Flow: Negative $760 million in 2024.
- Oil Export Revenues: Nearly tripled to $1 billion in 2024.
- Crude Oil Production: 257,000 barrels per day, a 6% annual growth.
- Shale Oil Production: 122,000 barrels per day in 2024, a 26% increase from 2023.
- Refining and Marketing EBITDA Margin: $13.7 per barrel, a 24% improvement compared to 2023.
- Investments: $5 billion in 2024, a 5% reduction compared to 2023.
- Lifting Costs: $15.6 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2024.
- Natural Gas Production: 37.4 million cubic meters per day, a 3% increase in 2024.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- YPF SA (YPF, Financial) achieved a 26% increase in shale oil production in 2024, reaching 122,000 barrels per day, aligning with their annual target.
- The company successfully issued a nine-year unsecured international bond for $1.1 billion at a yield of 8.5%, improving its debt profile.
- YPF SA (YPF) reduced the gap to import parity in fuel prices from 20% in 2023 to just 2% in 2024, aligning local prices with international standards.
- The company reported a 15% annual increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $4.7 billion, driven by higher revenues and hydrocarbon production.
- YPF SA (YPF) achieved a record high in refinery processing levels, exceeding 300,000 barrels per day in 2024, with a utilization rate of 92%.
Negative Points
- YPF SA (YPF) reported a negative free cash flow of $760 million in 2024, impacted by mature fields and severe weather in Patagonia.
- The company faced a $300 million negative EBITDA from mature fields and an $85 million impact from Patagonia weather conditions.
- Fourth-quarter revenues were down 10% sequentially, primarily due to lower seasonal gas sales and international reference prices.
- YPF SA (YPF) experienced a net loss of $284 million in the fourth quarter, attributed to lower EBITDA, impairment, and one-off costs related to mature fields.
- Fuel sales volumes decreased by 7% in 2024, mainly due to exceptionally high demand in 2023 driven by low prices.
