Nvidia Slashed to Sell by Seaport Research

Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) received a rare Sell rating this week as Seaport Research Partners kicked off coverage, arguing that the AI spending boom may already be fully baked into the stock's valuation.

Jay Goldberg, Seaport's senior analyst, set a $100 price target on Nvidia shares—roughly 60% below current levels—citing Blackwell‐series GPU supply constraints at TSMC and growing complexity in system integration.

He warned that “AI is probably not a bubble, but it may take many years before true utility becomes apparent,” and that as customers hunt for concrete use cases and returns on massive AI investments, Nvidia's outperformance could wane. According to Seeking Alpha data, only five of 62 Wall Street analysts have given Nvidia a Sell or Strong Sell in the last 90 days, underscoring how striking Seaport's call is.

Shares slid 2.5% by midday Wednesday, testing technical support near $370 after peaking above $580 in late March. Seaport's report points to “growing pains” in the AI hardware cycle—Nvidia's Blackwell line is already sold out for the year, but demand may outstrip TSMC's packaging capacity.

Goldberg also flagged potential share‐of‐wallet shifts as enterprises diversify their compute stacks, and cautioned that incremental AI revenue growth could lag investor expectations.

Seaport paired its Nvidia downgrade with sector‐wide ratings: it initiated coverage of Broadcom (AVGO, Financial) at Buy with a $230 target, cut Intel (INTC, Financial) to Sell at $18, and set Sell ratings on Texas Instruments (TXN, Financial) and Analog Devices (ADI, Financial).

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earned a Buy call at $110. These moves underscore Seaport's view that the mid‐cap and legacy chipmakers face steeper headwinds if AI capex cools.

Investors should care because Nvidia's steep forward P/E relies on hyper‐growth assumptions that may struggle to keep pace with supply and execution challenges. A sharper correction in NVDA could ripple through AI‐centric portfolios, prompting re‐rating of GPU suppliers and integrators alike.

With Nvidia set to report Q2 results after the close on May 22, markets will be looking for updated guidance on Blackwell shipments, gross‐margin outlook and commentary on capacity constraints. The tone set in that call could either validate Seaport's bearish stance or reinforce the consensus that Nvidia remains unassailable in the AI hardware race.