Alkermes (ALKS, Financial) reported first-quarter revenue of $306.5 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of $304.11 million. This financial result lays a robust groundwork for the company's annual financial objectives. Alkermes is well-equipped to navigate the complex macroeconomic landscape and remains committed to strategies aimed at enhancing long-term value.
In terms of research and development, Alkermes has reached a significant milestone in its ALKS2680 initiative. The company has finalized participant enrollment for Vibrance-1, a phase 2 trial focusing on narcolepsy type 1, with initial results anticipated early in the third quarter. The Vibrance-2 phase 2 trial, targeting narcolepsy type 2, is expected to complete enrollment by mid-year, with results set to be released in the fall. Furthermore, enrollment for Vibrance-3, a phase 2 study on idiopathic hypersomnia, is also in progress. Alkermes is building momentum across its ALKS 2680 program and is gearing up for subsequent phase 3 trials.
Orexin 2 receptor agonists, like those being developed by Alkermes, represent a burgeoning therapeutic frontier with the potential to revolutionize treatment options for central disorders of hypersomnolence.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Alkermes PLC (ALKS, Financial) is $39.69 with a high estimate of $52.00 and a low estimate of $30.00. The average target implies an upside of 38.16% from the current price of $28.73. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Alkermes PLC (ALKS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, Alkermes PLC's (ALKS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Alkermes PLC (ALKS, Financial) in one year is $27.43, suggesting a downside of 4.52% from the current price of $28.73. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Alkermes PLC (ALKS) Summary page.
ALKS Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 12, 2025
- Total Revenue: Exceeded $1.5 billion in 2024, driven by proprietary commercial portfolio.
- EBITDA: More than $450 million for continuing operations in 2024.
- Cash Position: Ended 2024 with $825 million in cash on the balance sheet.
- Debt: Retired all debt, ending 2024 debt-free.
- Share Repurchase: Repurchased approximately 8 million shares in 2024.
- VIVITROL Net Sales: $457.3 million in 2024, reflecting 14% growth year-over-year.
- ARISTADA Net Sales: $346.2 million in 2024, a 6% increase year-over-year.
- LYBALVI Net Sales: $280 million in 2024, a 46% increase year-over-year.
- Manufacturing and Royalty Revenue: $474.1 million in 2024.
- Cost of Goods Sold: $245.3 million in 2024.
- R&D Expenses: $245.3 million in 2024.
- SG&A Expenses: $645.2 million in 2024.
- GAAP Net Income: $372.1 million in 2024.
- Non-GAAP Net Income: $494.4 million in 2024.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: Expected to be in the range of $1.34 billion to $1.43 billion.
- 2025 EBITDA Guidance: Expected to be in the range of $215 million to $245 million.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Expected to be in the range of $310 million to $340 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Alkermes PLC (ALKS, Financial) achieved over $1.5 billion in revenue for 2024, driven by a strong proprietary commercial portfolio.
- The company reported more than $450 million in EBITDA for continuing operations, highlighting robust profitability.
- Alkermes PLC (ALKS) ended the year debt-free with $825 million in cash, having retired all outstanding debt.
- The company repurchased approximately 8 million shares, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
- Significant progress was made in advancing the neuroscience development pipeline, particularly with the ALKS 2680 program in narcolepsy.
Negative Points
- Alkermes PLC (ALKS) expects a decrease in manufacturing and royalty revenues by approximately $215 million in 2025 due to the expiration of the INVEGA SUSTENNA US royalty.
- The company anticipates flat to modest growth for mature products like VIVITROL and ARISTADA, indicating potential challenges in these segments.
- There is a projected increase in R&D expenses for 2025, reflecting ongoing investments in the ALKS 2680 Phase II programs.
- Alkermes PLC (ALKS) faces competitive pressures in the antipsychotic space, necessitating an expansion of its psychiatry sales team.
- The company expects Q1 2025 to be closer to breakeven on an EBITDA basis due to typical seasonal inventory drawdown patterns and other factors.
