Benchmark has adjusted its price target for Constellium (CSTM, Financial), decreasing it from $24 to $18, while maintaining a Buy rating. The revision comes despite Constellium surpassing expectations in the first quarter and reaffirming its guidance. According to the analyst, this update was perceived positively by investors due to the current uncertainties surrounding end-market exposure. The price target was lowered to account for these uncertainties, reflecting the cautious sentiment in the market.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 4 analysts, the average target price for Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) is $17.13 with a high estimate of $23.83 and a low estimate of $13.90. The average target implies an upside of 69.45% from the current price of $10.11. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Constellium SE (CSTM) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 4 brokerage firms, Constellium SE's (CSTM, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) in one year is $18.14, suggesting a upside of 79.43% from the current price of $10.11. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Constellium SE (CSTM) Summary page.
CSTM Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 30, 2025
- Revenue: $2 billion, up 5% compared to Q1 2024.
- Net Income: $38 million, compared to $22 million in Q1 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $186 million, including a $46 million positive non-cash impact from metal price lag.
- Adjusted EBITDA (excluding metal price lag): $140 million, compared to $160 million in Q1 2024.
- Free Cash Flow: Negative $3 million, impacted by $27 million from Valais flood recovery.
- Share Repurchase: $15 million returned to shareholders through repurchase of 1.4 million shares.
- Leverage: 3.3 times at the end of Q1 2025.
- Shipments: 372,000 tons, down 2% compared to Q1 2024.
- A&T Segment Adjusted EBITDA: $75 million, down 14% year-over-year.
- P&AR Segment Adjusted EBITDA: $60 million, up 25% year-over-year.
- AS&I Segment Adjusted EBITDA: $16 million, down 50% year-over-year.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) reported a strong safety performance with a recordable case rate of 1.02 per million hours worked.
- Revenue increased by 5% to $2 billion compared to the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher metal prices.
- Net income rose to $38 million, up from $22 million in the first quarter of the previous year.
- The company generated a positive free cash flow of $3 billion, aligning with expectations.
- Constellium SE (CSTM) successfully resumed normal operations at its Valais site, which had been impacted by a flood, resulting in a lower cost structure.
Negative Points
- Shipments decreased by 2% to 372,000 tons compared to the first quarter of 2024, due to lower shipments in A&T and AS&I segments.
- Adjusted EBITDA, excluding metal price lag, was $140 million, down from $160 million in the previous year.
- The company faced a foreign exchange headwind of $4 million and a negative impact of $10 million from the Valais flood.
- The automotive segment experienced a 15% decrease in shipments due to weakness in both North America and Europe.
- The aerospace segment faced a 14% decrease in adjusted EBITDA due to lower shipments and continued supply chain challenges.
