In the first quarter, Dexcom (DXCM, Financial) reported a revenue of $1.036 billion, surpassing market forecasts which anticipated $1.02 billion. The company's chairman, president, and CEO, Kevin Sayer, highlighted this achievement as a demonstration of robust performance and the expansion of coverage for type 2 diabetes. Looking ahead to 2025, Dexcom plans to enhance its product offerings with the introduction of the Dexcom G7 15 Day system, while also striving to increase global availability of their glucose biosensors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 25 analysts, the average target price for DexCom Inc (DXCM, Financial) is $100.60 with a high estimate of $120.00 and a low estimate of $80.00. The average target implies an upside of 43.33% from the current price of $70.19. More detailed estimate data can be found on the DexCom Inc (DXCM) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms, DexCom Inc's (DXCM, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for DexCom Inc (DXCM, Financial) in one year is $176.41, suggesting a upside of 151.33% from the current price of $70.19. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the DexCom Inc (DXCM) Summary page.
DXCM Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 13, 2025
- Worldwide Revenue: $1.11 billion for Q4 2024, up 8% from Q4 2023.
- US Revenue: $803 million for Q4 2024, a 4% increase from Q4 2023.
- International Revenue: $311 million for Q4 2024, a 17% increase; 19% organic growth.
- Gross Profit: $661.2 million or 59.4% of revenue for Q4 2024, down from 64.2% in Q4 2023.
- Operating Expenses: $451.7 million for Q4 2024, up from $421.1 million in Q4 2023.
- Operating Income: $209.5 million or 18.8% of revenue for Q4 2024, down from 23.5% in Q4 2023.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $300.1 million or 27.0% of revenue for Q4 2024, down from 31.1% in Q4 2023.
- Net Income: $177.8 million or $0.45 per share for Q4 2024.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: Approximately $2.6 billion at the end of Q4 2024.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $4.6 billion, representing 14% growth.
- 2025 Gross Profit Margin Guidance: 64% to 65% on a non-GAAP basis.
- 2025 Operating Profit Margin Guidance: Approximately 21% on a non-GAAP basis.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Approximately 30%.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- DexCom Inc (DXCM, Financial) reported an 8% organic revenue growth in Q4 2024, aligning with their guidance.
- The company expanded its global customer base by 25% in 2024, reaching over 2.8 million users.
- DexCom Inc (DXCM) achieved significant coverage expansion, with two of the three largest PBMs now covering CGM for all diabetes patients.
- The launch of the over-the-counter product, Stelo, saw strong demand with over 140,000 users in the first four months.
- International revenue grew by 17% in Q4 2024, driven by new access wins and expanded product availability.
Negative Points
- US revenue growth was impacted by rebate eligibility, negatively affecting growth by several points in Q4.
- Gross profit margin decreased to 59.4% from 64.2% in Q4 2023, partly due to a $21 million noncash charge.
- Operating income decreased to 18.8% of revenue in Q4 2024 from 23.5% in the same quarter of 2023.
- The company is managing channel inventory tightly due to disruptions, expecting normalization by the end of Q1 2025.
- DexCom Inc (DXCM) faces challenges in expanding coverage for the remaining 20 million type 2 diabetes patients not on insulin in the US.
