Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM, Financial) reported its first-quarter revenue at $121.5 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of $119.28 million. The company achieved significant milestones with the approval of SYMBRAVO for treating acute migraines and witnessed continued growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI products. Commercial preparations are set for SYMBRAVO's launch this June. Axsome is also progressing with its regulatory submissions, having filed an NDA for AXS-14 to manage fibromyalgia, with additional submissions planned this year for AXS-05 in managing Alzheimer's-related agitation and AXS-12 for cataplexy in narcolepsy.
The company is advancing its solriamfetol development programs, having announced Phase 3 results in ADHD and MDD, and continues to progress with Phase 3 trials for binge eating disorder and excessive sleepiness linked to shift work disorder. Axsome's comprehensive neuroscience pipeline aims to introduce up to five products serving ten indications, potentially benefiting over 150 million patients in the U.S. Axsome is focused on maintaining momentum through 2025, with a commitment to delivering transformative treatments for serious central nervous system conditions.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 17 analysts, the average target price for Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) is $176.76 with a high estimate of $210.00 and a low estimate of $143.00. The average target implies an upside of 57.53% from the current price of $112.21. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 18 brokerage firms, Axsome Therapeutics Inc's (AXSM, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) in one year is $262.18, suggesting a upside of 133.65% from the current price of $112.21. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) Summary page.
AXSM Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 18, 2025
- Total Product Revenue: $118.8 million for Q4 2024; $385.7 million for full year 2024, representing 66% and 88% year-over-year growth, respectively.
- Auvelity Net Product Sales: $92.6 million for Q4 2024; $291.4 million for full year 2024, representing 89% and 124% year-over-year growth.
- Sunosi Net Product Revenues: $26.2 million for Q4 2024; $94.3 million for full year 2024, representing 16% and 26% year-over-year growth.
- Cost of Revenue: $10.5 million for Q4 2024; $33.3 million for full year 2024.
- Research and Development Expense: $55 million for Q4 2024; $187.1 million for full year 2024.
- Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: $113.3 million for Q4 2024; $411.4 million for full year 2024.
- Net Loss: $74.9 million for Q4 2024; $287.2 million for full year 2024.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $315.4 million at the end of 2024.
- Auvelity Prescriptions: Approximately 158,000 in Q4 2024, representing 10% quarter-over-quarter growth.
- Sunosi Prescriptions: Approximately 49,000 in Q4 2024, representing 4% sequential growth.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) reported strong financial performance with total net product revenue of $386 million for 2024, reflecting high double-digit year-over-year growth.
- The company received US approval for Symbravo, a novel oral acute treatment for migraine, and is preparing for its commercial launch.
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) has a robust late-stage pipeline with plans to submit NDAs for AXS-05, AXS-12, and AXS-14 in 2025.
- Auvelity and Sunosi showed significant demand growth, with Auvelity achieving 89% and 124% year-over-year growth in net product sales for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively.
- The company ended 2024 with $315.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, which is expected to fund operations into cash flow positivity.
Negative Points
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) reported a net loss of $287.2 million for the full year of 2024, an increase from the previous year.
- Research and development expenses increased significantly to $187.1 million for the full year of 2024, impacting overall profitability.
- The company anticipates a slower growth rate in Q1 2025 due to negative seasonality effects.
- There are uncertainties regarding the regulatory filing strategy for AXS-05 in Alzheimer's disease agitation, which could impact timelines.
- The high rebating environment for oral CGRPs presents challenges for the net pricing strategy of Symbravo.
