Bank of America's analyst, Jason Gerberry, has increased the price target for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM, Financial) from $174 to $176. He maintains a Buy rating on the company's shares following a first-quarter update. The recent report was considered straightforward, showing a slight revenue beat without any significant pipeline developments.
Gerberry indicated that the market's forecast for Axsome's lead product, Auvelity, in the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD), appears cautious yet achievable. This outlook is based on the strong growth observed in Auvelity's prescriptions during the first quarter.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 17 analysts, the average target price for Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) is $177.47 with a high estimate of $210.00 and a low estimate of $143.00. The average target implies an upside of 52.35% from the current price of $116.49. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 18 brokerage firms, Axsome Therapeutics Inc's (AXSM, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) in one year is $262.18, suggesting a upside of 125.07% from the current price of $116.49. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) Summary page.
AXSM Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 05, 2025
- Total Revenue: $121.5 million for Q1 2025, a 62% year-over-year growth.
- Net Product Sales: $120.4 million for Q1 2025.
- Royalty Revenue: $1.1 million for Q1 2025.
- Auvelity Net Product Sales: $96.2 million for Q1 2025, an 80% year-over-year growth.
- Sunosi Net Product Revenues: $25.2 million for Q1 2025, a 17% year-over-year growth.
- Cost of Revenue: $9.8 million for Q1 2025.
- Research and Development Expenses: $44.8 million for Q1 2025.
- Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: $120.8 million for Q1 2025.
- Net Loss: $59.4 million or $1.22 per share for Q1 2025.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $300.9 million at the end of Q1 2025.
- Auvelity Prescriptions: Approximately 167,000 in Q1 2025, a 76% year-over-year growth.
- Sunosi Prescriptions: Over 46,000 in Q1 2025, a 12% year-over-year growth.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM, Financial) reported a 62% year-over-year total revenue growth for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong demand for Auvelity and Sunosi.
- The company received FDA approval for Symbravo, its second internally developed product, highlighting its commitment to innovative CNS treatments.
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) has a diversified portfolio with multiple late-stage product candidates, including AXS-14, AXS-05, and AXS-12, which are advancing towards regulatory filings.
- The company announced positive top-line results from several Phase III trials, including solriamfetol in ADHD and Symbravo in migraine patients, reinforcing its robust pipeline.
- Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) maintains a strong cash position with $300.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, sufficient to fund operations into cash flow positivity.
Negative Points
- The company reported a net loss of $59.4 million for the first quarter of 2025, although this was an improvement from the previous year's loss.
- Research and development expenses increased to $44.8 million, driven by multiple Phase III trials and higher personnel costs.
- Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $120.8 million, primarily due to commercialization activities and prelaunch efforts for Symbravo.
- Despite progress, Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) faces challenges in expanding payer coverage for Auvelity, with current coverage at 78% of all lives.
- The company is closely monitoring potential impacts from trade policy developments, including proposed pharmaceutical tariffs, although it expects any impact to be immaterial.
