Stephens has adjusted its price target for Matson (MATX, Financial), reducing it from $175 to $150 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. Despite strong first-quarter results, attention is now on the second quarter due to a significant 30% year-over-year decline in China volumes as of April. Consequently, Matson anticipates a notable drop in Ocean Transportation EBIT during this quarter due to uncertainties in this segment. Although short-term projections have been revised downward, Stephens considers the stock's valuation attractive, even when factoring in more conservative volume forecasts.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 3 analysts, the average target price for Matson Inc (MATX, Financial) is $143.33 with a high estimate of $175.00 and a low estimate of $125.00. The average target implies an upside of 30.22% from the current price of $110.07. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Matson Inc (MATX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 4 brokerage firms, Matson Inc's (MATX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Matson Inc (MATX, Financial) in one year is $97.83, suggesting a downside of 11.12% from the current price of $110.07. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Matson Inc (MATX) Summary page.
MATX Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 05, 2025
- Consolidated Operating Income: Increased $45.2 million year-over-year to $82.1 million.
- Ocean Transportation Operating Income: Increased $46 million year-over-year.
- Logistics Operating Income: Decreased $800,000 year-over-year to $8.5 million.
- Net Income: Increased 100.3% year-over-year to $72.3 million.
- Diluted Earnings Per Share: Increased 109.6% year-over-year to $2.18 per share.
- Hawaii Container Volume: Increased 3.2% year-over-year.
- China Service Volume: Decreased 1.4% year-over-year.
- Guam Container Volume: Decreased 14.3% year-over-year.
- Alaska Container Volume: Increased 4.8% year-over-year.
- SSA Terminal Joint Venture Contribution: $6.6 million, a decrease of $6.2 million year-over-year.
- Interest Income: $9.4 million, $600,000 higher than last year.
- Interest Expense: Decreased $500,000 year-over-year.
- Cash Flow from Operations: $820.2 million for the trailing 12 months.
- Share Repurchase: Approximately 500,000 shares repurchased for $69.2 million.
- Total Debt: $390.8 million, a reduction of $10.1 million from the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Matson Inc (MATX, Financial) reported significantly higher year-over-year consolidated operating income, driven by elevated freight rates in its China service.
- Hawaii container volume increased by 3.2% year-over-year, supported by the dry docking of a competitor's vessel.
- Matson Inc (MATX) announced a new direct service connecting Ho Chi Minh to its CLX and Mac Shanghai departures, enhancing its presence in Vietnam.
- The company has a strong balance sheet and remains committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase programs.
- Matson Inc (MATX) has a long history of navigating through periods of uncertainty and disruption, maintaining reliable and fast service for its customers.
Negative Points
- Matson Inc (MATX) lowered its 2025 outlook due to significant uncertainty regarding tariffs, global trade, and geopolitical factors.
- Container volume in Guam decreased by 14.3% year-over-year, primarily due to lower demand from retail and food and beverage segments.
- The company expects container volume and average freight rates to be lower year-over-year for the full year 2025.
- Logistics operating income decreased due to a lower contribution from freight forwarding and transportation brokerage.
- Matson Inc (MATX) faces potential higher container equipment costs in the future due to proposed additional duties on ship-to-shore cranes, containers, and certain chassis.
