Assurant (AIZ, Financial) announced its first-quarter revenue of $3.07 billion, slightly surpassing the market consensus of $3.06 billion. The company credited its performance to robust outcomes in its Global Housing division and better-than-expected loss management in the Global Automotive sector, part of its Global Lifestyle business. Assurant's President and CEO highlighted the progress made in achieving strategic goals, emphasizing client delivery, operational efficiency, and sustained growth efforts.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 5 analysts, the average target price for Assurant Inc (AIZ, Financial) is $227.40 with a high estimate of $250.00 and a low estimate of $200.00. The average target implies an upside of 14.95% from the current price of $197.82. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Assurant Inc (AIZ) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 8 brokerage firms, Assurant Inc's (AIZ, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.1, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Assurant Inc (AIZ, Financial) in one year is $204.16, suggesting a upside of 3.2% from the current price of $197.82. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Assurant Inc (AIZ) Summary page.
AIZ Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 12, 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA Growth: 15% increase to over $1.5 billion, excluding catastrophes.
- Adjusted Earnings Per Share Growth: 19% increase to over $20, excluding catastrophes.
- Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA: More than doubled to over $900 million in 2024, excluding catastrophes.
- Return on Equity: Average of over 22% over the past five years.
- Combined Ratio: 10-year average of 89%, compared to the broader P&C market of 95%.
- Cash Flow Generation: Nearly $250 million upstreamed in Q4 and over $800 million for the full year.
- Capital Return to Shareholders: Over $450 million for the year, including $300 million of share repurchases.
- Liquidity: $673 million at the holding company.
- Dividend Increase: 11% increase, marking the 20th consecutive year of dividend raises.
- Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDA: Down 6% in Q4 compared to last year, or 5% on a constant currency basis.
- Global Auto Earnings: Down 11% in Q4 compared to last year, largely due to lower real estate joint venture partnership income.
- Global Housing Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $225 million, including $50 million of catastrophe losses.
- Share Repurchase Expectation for 2025: Between $200 million to $300 million, subject to conditions.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Assurant Inc (AIZ, Financial) achieved a 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA and a 19% growth in adjusted earnings per share for 2024, excluding reportable catastrophes.
- The company secured significant client wins and renewals in Global Lifestyle, particularly within Connected Living, including a partnership with T-Mobile for the Protection 360 Home Tech product.
- Global Housing delivered double-digit earnings growth for the second consecutive year, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling since 2022, excluding catastrophes.
- Assurant Inc (AIZ) returned over $450 million to shareholders in 2024, including $300 million in share repurchases, and increased its common stock dividend by 11%.
- The company has a strong B2B2C distribution strategy, partnering with leading global brands to provide protection for connected devices, homes, and automobiles, leveraging data-driven technology solutions.
Negative Points
- Global Lifestyle's fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was down 6% compared to the previous year, impacted by lower US trade-in programs and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.
- Global Auto experienced an 11% decline in results year-over-year, primarily due to lower real estate joint venture partnership income and elevated loss experience in certain products.
- The company faces potential headwinds from foreign exchange rates and incremental investments, which could mute growth by a few percentage points in 2025.
- Assurant Inc (AIZ) anticipates a modest decline in Global Housing EBITDA for 2025, excluding catastrophes, due to significant favorable prior year reserve development in 2024.
- The impact of tariffs and potential changes in consumer demand or claims costs could pose challenges, although these factors are not currently included in the 2025 outlook.
