Baird has adjusted its target price for Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN, Financial), reducing it to $54 from a previous forecast of $56. This change comes as the firm maintains a Neutral stance on the stock. The revision follows a re-evaluation after the company's first-quarter results revealed weaker performance in its Water and Outdoor segments.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 15 analysts, the average target price for Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN, Financial) is $69.35 with a high estimate of $93.00 and a low estimate of $48.00. The average target implies an upside of 31.34% from the current price of $52.80. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, Fortune Brands Innovations Inc's (FBIN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN, Financial) in one year is $75.63, suggesting a upside of 43.24% from the current price of $52.8. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) Summary page.
FBIN Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Revenue: $1 billion, down 7% year-over-year; down 5% organically excluding China and FX.
- Operating Income: $136 million.
- Operating Margin: 13.1%.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.66.
- Water Innovations Sales: $565 million, down 10%; down 7% organically excluding China and FX.
- Outdoors Sales: $305 million, down 3%.
- Security Sales: $163 million, down 4%.
- Free Cash Flow: Negative $113 million.
- Cash: $340 million.
- Net Debt: $2.6 billion.
- Net Debt-to-EBITDA Leverage: 2.8x.
- Share Repurchases: $225 million year-to-date; $175 million in Q1.
- Tariff Impact: Expected $200 million impact in 2025; $525 million annualized impact anticipated for 2026.
- Digital Product Activations: Over 200,000 in Q1.
- Flow Sales Growth: Increased by 180% over Q1 2024.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN, Financial) has successfully reduced its reliance on China, with plans to decrease its China cost of goods sold (COGS) to around 10% by the end of the year.
- The company is leveraging its strong North American manufacturing base, with 60% of its COGS from the U.S. and 70% from North America, providing a competitive advantage.
- FBIN's digital business is performing well, with over 200,000 device activations in the first quarter and a strong pipeline of new partnerships, including with Liberty Mutual Insurance.
- The company has a robust balance sheet with strong annual cash flow, allowing flexibility to navigate challenging conditions while continuing to invest for the future.
- FBIN's strategic initiatives, such as the new Master Lock and SentrySafe brand campaigns, have shown immediate positive impacts on sales and website traffic.
Negative Points
- The company is facing significant tariff impacts, with an anticipated $200 million impact in 2025 and $525 million annualized, which requires mitigation through supply chain moves and pricing actions.
- FBIN's first quarter sales were down 7% compared to the previous year, reflecting a softer demand environment and inventory reductions across channels.
- The housing market uncertainty and cautious consumer behavior have led to slower spring selling seasons and hesitancy in major purchases, impacting demand.
- The Water Innovations segment saw a 10% decrease in sales, with inventory destocking in wholesale channels and a transition to enhanced pricing discipline in e-commerce affecting performance.
- The company has suspended its detailed full-year financial guidance due to uncertainty around consumer demand and external market conditions.
