DA Davidson's analyst Thomas Diffely has adjusted the price target for Axcelis (ACLS, Financial), lowering it from $100 to $75. Despite this reduction, the analyst maintains a Buy rating on the stock. The company’s recent quarterly performance and future outlook exceeded initial fears, which is reassuring given the 66% drop in the stock since its 52-week high. The long-term prospects for Axcelis remain promising, although current global uncertainties have pushed back the expected timing of a cyclical recovery.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 5 analysts, the average target price for Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS, Financial) is $80.31 with a high estimate of $144.57 and a low estimate of $56.00. The average target implies an upside of 42.09% from the current price of $56.53. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 8 brokerage firms, Axcelis Technologies Inc's (ACLS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.8, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS, Financial) in one year is $82.73, suggesting a upside of 46.36% from the current price of $56.525. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) Summary page.
ACLS Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Revenue: $193 million for Q1 2025.
- Earnings Per Diluted Share (GAAP): $0.88.
- Earnings Per Diluted Share (Non-GAAP): $1.04.
- Bookings: $110 million, with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.8 times.
- Gross Margin (GAAP): 46.1%.
- Gross Margin (Non-GAAP): 46.4%.
- Operating Expenses (GAAP): $59.6 million.
- Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP): $54.1 million.
- Operating Margin (GAAP): 15.1%.
- Operating Margin (Non-GAAP): 18.3%.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $39.5 million, reflecting a 20.5% margin.
- Free Cash Flow: $35 million.
- Share Repurchase Authorization: $212 million remaining.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $587 million with no debt.
- Q2 2025 Revenue Outlook: Approximately $185 million.
- Q2 2025 Non-GAAP Gross Margin Outlook: Approximately 42%.
- Q2 2025 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses Outlook: Approximately $54 million.
- Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: Approximately $29 million.
- Q2 2025 Non-GAAP EPS Outlook: Approximately $0.73.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS, Financial) exceeded its revenue and earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue of $193 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.88.
- The company reported strong gross margins of 46.1% on a GAAP basis and 46.4% on a non-GAAP basis, driven by lower-than-expected warranty and installation costs.
- Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) saw a sequential increase in bookings to $110 million, reflecting a book-to-bill ratio of 0.8 times, the highest since Q4 2023.
- The company has a robust product and service upgrade offering, which is a key driver for long-term growth in CS&I revenue.
- Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) maintains a strong balance sheet with $587 million in cash and no debt, allowing for flexibility in capital deployment and share repurchases.
Negative Points
- The book-to-bill ratio, while improved, still indicates that bookings can fluctuate from quarter to quarter, suggesting potential volatility in future revenue.
- Revenue from China is expected to decline on a year-over-year basis in 2025 as customers digest previous investments, which could impact overall revenue growth.
- The company anticipates a sequential decline in non-GAAP gross margins to approximately 42% in the second quarter due to mix and slightly lower volumes.
- Despite strong profitability, Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) is operating in a muted demand environment, particularly in the auto and consumer electronics sectors.
- The memory market, specifically NAND, remains muted with customers focusing on technology transitions rather than wafer capacity additions, limiting demand for implantation equipment.
