Marvell Slides After Guidance While Postponing Investor Day

Cantor Fitzgerald trims PT to $60 amid ASIC contract and tariff worries

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May 07, 2025
Summary
  • Q1 revenue guide narrowed to $1.875B ± 2%, fueling analyst downgrades
  • Morgan Stanley stayed Neutral but flagged tariff exposure in legacy businesses despite Trainium and optical strength
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Marvell (MRVL, Financial) tumbles more than 9.5% after delaying its June investor day to 2026 and tightening Q1 fiscal-2026 revenue guidance to $1.875 billion ± 2%.

Shares plunged on the news that, “in light of the dynamic macroeconomic environment,” Marvell would push its Investor Day back a year and narrow its Q1 outlook from ± 5% to ± 2%. Cantor Fitzgerald's C.J. Muse cut Marvell to Neutral from Overweight, slashing his price target to $60 (from $125) over concerns that Amazon and Microsoft might shift Gen3 Maia ASICs to Broadcom by 2027–28.

Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore kept an Equal-Weight rating, noting the company has substituted a custom-silicon business update in place of Investor Day—where 90% of recent analyst questions focused. Moore welcomed the chance to hear more on optical DSPs (a segment he favors) but warned that legacy networking/storage businesses remain exposed to tariffs. He also called the tighter guidance “modest” given strength in Trainium supply and solid optical performance, even as shipments in networking and communications trails end-market consumption.

Why it matters: Marvell's delayed visibility and narrower guide hit confidence just as investors weigh its ability to retain key hyperscaler ASIC contracts and capitalize on AI-driven demand.

Investors will look for the custom silicon business briefing—date TBD—and monitor Q1 earnings, expected in late July, for more clarity on end-market traction and margin outlook.

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