Sunrun (RUN, Financial) anticipates solid growth in its financial metrics for the full-year 2025. The company forecasts its Aggregate Subscriber Value to span from $5.7 billion to $6.0 billion, marking a 14% increase from 2024 at the midpoint. In terms of Contracted Net Value Creation, Sunrun expects figures between $650 million and $850 million, reflecting a 9% growth compared to the previous year at the midpoint. Additionally, Cash Generation is projected to range from $200 million to $500 million for 2025, remaining consistent with the earlier guidance provided by the company.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 22 analysts, the average target price for Sunrun Inc (RUN, Financial) is $12.22 with a high estimate of $20.00 and a low estimate of $6.00. The average target implies an upside of 65.32% from the current price of $7.39. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Sunrun Inc (RUN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 26 brokerage firms, Sunrun Inc's (RUN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Sunrun Inc (RUN, Financial) in one year is $17.92, suggesting a upside of 142.49% from the current price of $7.39. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Sunrun Inc (RUN) Summary page.
RUN Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 27, 2025
- Revenue: Annual recurring revenue (ARR) over $1.6 billion, up 23% year-over-year.
- Cash Generation: $34 million in Q4, third consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.
- Debt Reduction: Paid down parent debt by $186 million since Q1 of last year.
- Storage Attachment Rate: 62% of new installations in Q4, up 17 percentage points year-over-year.
- Storage Capacity Installed: 392 megawatt hours in Q4, a 78% increase year-over-year.
- Customer Additions: Approximately 32,900 in Q4, including 30,700 subscriber additions.
- Net Subscriber Value: $19,177 in Q4.
- Gross Earning Assets: $17.8 billion at the end of Q4.
- Net Earning Assets: $6.8 billion at the end of Q4, up $536 million from the prior quarter.
- Solar Capacity Installed: Approximately 242 megawatts in Q4, a 7% increase year-over-year.
- Guidance for 2025: Cash generation expected to be $200 million to $500 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Sunrun Inc (RUN, Financial) reported positive cash generation for three consecutive quarters and expects to continue this trend throughout 2025.
- The company achieved a 125% year-over-year increase in contracted total value generated in Q4 2024.
- Sunrun Inc (RUN) increased its storage attachment rates to 62% of new customers, marking a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year.
- The company successfully paid down $186 million of parent debt since Q1 2024, demonstrating effective debt management.
- Sunrun Inc (RUN) expanded its networked storage capacity to 2.5 gigawatt hours, with over 156,000 storage systems installed.
Negative Points
- Sunrun Inc (RUN) faces challenges with slower ramp in domestic content ITC adder qualifications, particularly affecting affiliate partners.
- The company revised its cash generation guidance for 2025 downwards due to higher capital cost assumptions and slightly lower volume expectations.
- Sunrun Inc (RUN) is experiencing competitive pressures from irrational pricing behaviors by certain new entrants in the market.
- The company anticipates a flat growth in solar installations for 2025, which could impact overall growth potential.
- Sunrun Inc (RUN) faces potential risks from policy changes and tariffs, which could affect hardware costs and supply chain dynamics.
