Veracyte (VCYT, Financial) reported first-quarter revenue of $114.5 million, surpassing market expectations of $110.97 million. This marks the 11th consecutive quarter where testing volume has grown by 20% or more, fueled by high demand for the company's Decipher and Afirma tests. CEO Marc Stapley highlighted the company's robust start to 2025, emphasizing the availability of Decipher for metastatic prostate cancer patients as a key milestone. Veracyte is well-positioned to meet its goals for the current year and the future, bolstered by recent strategic advancements. The company remains focused on its mission to improve cancer care for patients worldwide.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for Veracyte Inc (VCYT, Financial) is $43.73 with a high estimate of $54.00 and a low estimate of $29.00. The average target implies an upside of 41.79% from the current price of $30.84. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Veracyte Inc (VCYT) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 13 brokerage firms, Veracyte Inc's (VCYT, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Veracyte Inc (VCYT, Financial) in one year is $36.29, suggesting a upside of 17.67% from the current price of $30.84. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Veracyte Inc (VCYT) Summary page.
VCYT Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 24, 2025
- Q4 Revenue: $118.6 million, a 21% increase year-over-year.
- Full Year Revenue: $446 million, a 23% increase year-over-year.
- Testing Revenue: $112.2 million in Q4, a 24% increase year-over-year.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 20.6% for the full year 2024.
- Cash Generation: Over $70 million for the full year 2024.
- Decipher Volume Growth: 45% year-over-year in Q4.
- Afirma Volume Growth: 8% year-over-year in Q4.
- Testing ASP: Approximately $2,875 in Q4.
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 69.3% in Q4.
- GAAP Net Income: $5.1 million in Q4.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $289.4 million at the end of 2024.
- 2025 Testing Revenue Guidance: $470 million to $480 million, 12% to 15% growth year-over-year.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Guidance: Improvement by approximately 100 basis points.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Veracyte Inc (VCYT, Financial) achieved a record year in 2024 with a total revenue of $446 million, marking a robust growth of 23% year-over-year.
- The company's testing revenue, which constitutes nearly 95% of its business, grew by 28% year-over-year, demonstrating strong demand for its products.
- Decipher's market leadership was further solidified with a 36% volume growth, delivering over 80,000 tests in 2024.
- Afirma's volume growth was strong, increasing by 12% in 2024, with significant revenue growth in Bethesda V and VI categories.
- Veracyte Inc (VCYT) maintained a best-in-class financial profile with a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.6% and generated over $70 million in cash.
Negative Points
- Veracyte Inc (VCYT) faces potential operational challenges with its French subsidiary, Veracyte SAS, which may lead to bankruptcy proceedings if a buyer is not found.
- The company experienced a decline in product revenue, down 18% year-over-year, due to supply and manufacturing challenges with Prosigna.
- Biopharmaceutical and other revenue decreased by 17% year-over-year, reflecting challenges in this segment.
- Non-GAAP gross margin decreased by approximately 130 basis points compared to the prior year period, impacted by lower prior period collections.
- The potential changes in the French entity could impact Veracyte Inc (VCYT)'s timelines for international expansion and development roadmaps.
