Cantor Fitzgerald has downgraded Marvell Technology (MRVL, Financial) from "Overweight" to "Neutral," slashing its price target by over 50% from $125 to $60. Concerns about the deteriorating outlook for Marvell's custom silicon business and the potential loss of major clients are cited as reasons for the downgrade. Although Marvell's stock has already fallen significantly since January, the market has yet to fully account for the potential loss of Microsoft's Maia Gen3 project, code-named Griffin, which could shift production to Broadcom (AVGO) from 2027. Amazon might also transition some chip designs to Alchip.
Cantor anticipates steady custom silicon revenue for Marvell from 2025 to 2026 but projects earnings per share to drop to $3.00 by 2027, weakening its valuation. The firm emphasizes the need for new medium to large client orders to support higher valuation ratios. Meanwhile, Marvell's Investor Day has been postponed from June 10 to 2026, replaced by an online event focusing on custom silicon, dampening prospects for immediate positive catalysts.
