VYX has reaffirmed its revenue projection for fiscal year 2025, with expectations ranging from $2.575 billion to $2.65 billion, aligning with market consensus of $2.58 billion. This forecast is based on full-year gross hardware recognition. As VYX transitions its hardware business with Ennoconn by year's end, it plans to revise its outlook to reflect net hardware commission revenue.
The company's projections also account for potential impacts from U.S. trade tariffs, including strategies aimed at mitigating these effects. Additionally, VYX’s outlook is contingent on foreign currency exchange rates maintaining their levels as of March 2025.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for NCR Voyix Corp (VYX, Financial) is $14.19 with a high estimate of $18.00 and a low estimate of $8.50. The average target implies an upside of 62.14% from the current price of $8.75. More detailed estimate data can be found on the NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 9 brokerage firms, NCR Voyix Corp's (VYX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for NCR Voyix Corp (VYX, Financial) in one year is $10.23, suggesting a upside of 16.91% from the current price of $8.75. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) Summary page.
VYX Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 27, 2025
- Reported Revenue: $682 million for Q4 2024.
- Normalized Revenue: $678 million, reflecting a 14% decline due to hardware sales weakness.
- Software and Services Revenue: Declined 2% to $521 million; increased 1% excluding terminated agreements.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Increased 75% to $114 million; margin expanded 850 basis points to 16.7%.
- Software ARR: Increased 4% in Q4 2024.
- Total ARR: Increased 5% in Q4 2024.
- Platform Sites: Approximately 74,000, a 26% increase from the prior year.
- Restaurants Segment Revenue: Declined 5% to $211 million; Adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $68 million.
- Retail Segment Revenue: Declined 15% to $461 million; Adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $102 million.
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow Unrestricted: $72 million for the quarter.
- Net Leverage: 1.6 turns based on $419 million of pro forma 2024 adjusted EBITDA.
- Share Repurchase: 4 million shares repurchased for approximately $56 million in Q4.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $2.575 billion to $2.65 billion, reflecting a 9% to 6% decline.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $420 million to $445 million, representing a 21% to 28% increase.
- Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: $0.75 to $0.80 for 2025.
- 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Unrestricted Guidance: $170 million to $190 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- NCR Voyix Corp (VYX, Financial) reported a strong revenue retention rate of 98% over the last three years, indicating stable customer relationships.
- The company has seen a 26% increase in platform sites, reaching approximately 74,000 sites by the end of 2024.
- NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) signed significant new contracts, including a multiyear platform and payments contract with Yogurtland and a $335 million contract with the Defense Commissary Agency.
- The company is transitioning to a recurring revenue model, with expectations to increase recurring revenue composition from 60% to 75% after exiting hardware.
- NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) has entered a five-year nonexclusive agreement with Worldpay to enhance its payment solutions, potentially unlocking new revenue streams.
Negative Points
- The company experienced a 14% decline in reported revenue due to expected weakness in hardware sales.
- NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) is facing challenges in exiting hardware sales, with the ODM transition delayed, impacting revenue guidance.
- There is a decline in software revenue by 3% due to a decrease in onetime perpetual software license revenue.
- The company is undergoing cost reductions, including headcount reductions, which may impact employee morale and operations.
- NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) faces potential risks from tariffs, which could impact hardware margins and customer pricing.
