Canaccord's analyst, Joseph Vafi, has adjusted the price target for ICF International (ICFI, Financial), bringing it down to $90 from a previously set $100, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. The adjustment follows ICFI's consistent first-quarter performance and the continued expectation for 2025. Current projections for 2025 anticipate a potential revenue decrease of 10%, setting a baseline for this year's financial outlook according to the company's management.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 4 analysts, the average target price for ICF International Inc (ICFI, Financial) is $102.50 with a high estimate of $133.00 and a low estimate of $85.00. The average target implies an upside of 21.47% from the current price of $84.38. More detailed estimate data can be found on the ICF International Inc (ICFI) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 5 brokerage firms, ICF International Inc's (ICFI, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for ICF International Inc (ICFI, Financial) in one year is $128.61, suggesting a upside of 52.42% from the current price of $84.38. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the ICF International Inc (ICFI) Summary page.
ICFI Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 01, 2025
- Revenue: $487.6 million, a decline of 1.4% year over year.
- Commercial Revenue Growth: Increased 22.1%, accounting for 29.5% of total revenues.
- Commercial Energy Revenue: Increased 21% year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Expanded 10 basis points to 11.3%.
- Non-GAAP EPS: Increased 9.6% to $1.94.
- Net Income: $26.9 million, slightly below last year's $27.3 million.
- Gross Margin: Expanded 80 basis points to 38%.
- Interest Expense: Declined to $7.3 million from $8.2 million in the prior year.
- Tax Rate: 10.5% in the first quarter, with a full-year expectation of 18.5%.
- Backlog: $3.4 billion, with $1.9 billion funded.
- Net Debt: $499 million, up from $475 million in the prior year.
- Share Repurchases: 313,000 shares for $35 million.
- Operating Cash Flow: Consumed $33 million due to seasonal working capital needs.
- Capital Expenditures: $3.5 million, down from $5.2 million a year ago.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- ICF International Inc (ICFI, Financial) reported first-quarter revenues in line with expectations, demonstrating the strength of its diversified business model.
- Revenues from commercial energy clients increased by 21% year over year, driven by strong demand from utility clients.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin on total revenues expanded by 10 basis points to 11.3%, reflecting effective cost management.
- Non-GAAP EPS increased by almost 10%, outperforming first-quarter revenue comparisons.
- The integration of AEG, acquired in late 2024, was completed successfully, enhancing ICFI's capabilities in energy technology and advisory services.
Negative Points
- Revenues from federal clients declined by 12.6% compared to the previous year's first quarter, impacted by contract funding curtailments and a slower pace of new RFPs.
- Approximately $115 million of estimated 2025 revenues have been affected by stop work orders and contract terminations.
- The IT modernization business is expected to decline by 5% to 10% for the year due to delays in awards and procurement processes.
- First-quarter revenues declined by 1.4% year over year, attributed to one less workday and a decrease in US federal government pass-throughs.
- The backlog was adjusted to account for terminated federal government contracts, impacting it by approximately $375 million since the beginning of the year.
