ASPN anticipates its second-quarter revenue to range between $70 million and $80 million, which falls short of the prevailing market consensus of $90.87 million. Despite this, the company aims for its adjusted EBITDA to be between break-even and $7 million. Additionally, ASPN plans to keep its capital expenditures under $10 million for the quarter.
Ricardo Rodriguez, the Chief Financial Officer, highlighted the company's strategic focus on performance execution across varying demand scenarios. With a robust balance sheet and ongoing initiatives to cut down on fixed costs, ASPN is positioning itself for enhanced profitability and cash flow. The company expects to achieve greater benefits as the economic outlook stabilizes.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) is $17.50 with a high estimate of $32.00 and a low estimate of $11.00. The average target implies an upside of 207.56% from the current price of $5.69. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 9 brokerage firms, Aspen Aerogels Inc's (ASPN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) in one year is $16.05, suggesting a upside of 182.07% from the current price of $5.69. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) Summary page.
ASPN Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 13, 2025
- Revenue: $453 million for 2024, a 90% increase year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $90 million, up from a negative $23 million in 2023.
- Net Income: $13 million for 2024.
- Pyro Thin Thermal Barrier Revenue: $307 million in 2024, up from $110 million in 2023.
- Energy Industrial Revenue: $53 million in Q4 2024, with gross margins exceeding 40%.
- Gross Margin: Exceeded 35% target, with company-level gross profit margins at 38% in Q4 2024.
- Q4 Revenue: $123.1 million, a 46% year-over-year growth.
- Free Cash Flow: Positive $20.9 million in Q4 2024.
- Cash on Balance Sheet: Over $220 million at the end of 2024.
- Q1 2025 Revenue Guidance: $75 million to $95 million.
- Q1 2025 EBITDA Guidance: Break-even to $15 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) achieved a significant revenue growth of 90% in 2024, reaching $453 million.
- The company exceeded its long-term target of 35% gross margins, achieving over 40% gross margins in its energy industrial segment.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) secured a new thermal barrier design award from Volvo Truck, marking its second award in the commercial vehicle segment.
- The company successfully transitioned to an external manufacturing facility, enhancing its supply capabilities and achieving better gross margins.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) ended 2024 with over $220 million in cash, providing financial flexibility for future growth and challenges.
Negative Points
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) decided to cease construction of Plant 2 in Statesboro, Georgia, due to evolving market conditions.
- The company anticipates potential tariff risks in 2025, which could impact its pricing strategies and sourcing optimization.
- There is uncertainty in the EV market, with potential reductions in EV incentives and high interest rates affecting demand.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) expects a temporary drop in production in Q1 2025 due to inventory adjustments at General Motors.
- The company is cautious about providing annual guidance for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving market dynamics.
