Loop Capital has adjusted its price target for TopBuild (BLD, Financial), bringing it down from $370 to $360, while maintaining a Buy rating for the stock. This revision follows the company's Q1 earnings, which surpassed expectations primarily due to strong performance in specialty distribution, compensating for weaker installation volumes. Despite this positive earnings report, TopBuild has updated its FY25 residential sales forecast, now anticipating a high single-digit decline compared to the previously expected mid-single-digit drop. This adjustment reflects a more cautious view on the single-family housing market outlook and factors in contributions from year-to-date mergers and acquisitions.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 10 analysts, the average target price for TopBuild Corp (BLD, Financial) is $351.30 with a high estimate of $395.00 and a low estimate of $310.00. The average target implies an upside of 23.25% from the current price of $285.03. More detailed estimate data can be found on the TopBuild Corp (BLD) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 12 brokerage firms, TopBuild Corp's (BLD, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for TopBuild Corp (BLD, Financial) in one year is $311.39, suggesting a upside of 9.25% from the current price of $285.03. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the TopBuild Corp (BLD) Summary page.
BLD Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Total Sales: Declined 3.6% to $1.2 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $234.8 million with a margin of 19%.
- Installation Segment Sales: Decreased 6.7% to $745.5 million.
- Specialty Distribution Sales: Increased 2.6% to $559.8 million.
- Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: 29.6%, down 70 basis points from last year.
- Adjusted SG&A as a Percentage of Sales: 13.9%, up from 13.5% last year.
- Adjusted Earnings Per Diluted Share: $4.63, $0.18 lower than last year.
- Total Liquidity: $746.4 million at the end of the quarter.
- Net Debt: $1.07 billion with a leverage ratio of 1x trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA.
- Share Buyback: $215.6 million returned to shareholders.
- Guidance for Full Year Sales: $5.05 billion to $5.35 billion.
- Guidance for Adjusted EBITDA: $925 million to $1.075 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- TopBuild Corp (BLD, Financial) reported a solid adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% for the first quarter, demonstrating strong operational efficiency.
- The company's Specialty Distribution segment saw low single-digit sales growth, driven by robust performance in the DI mechanical insulation business in both the US and Canada.
- TopBuild Corp (BLD) successfully executed a footprint optimization project, consolidating 33 facilities to drive ongoing efficiencies across operations.
- The company closed the acquisition of Seal-Rite, enhancing its capital allocation strategy and expanding its market presence.
- TopBuild Corp (BLD) maintained a healthy M&A pipeline, indicating potential for future growth and expansion opportunities.
Negative Points
- Total sales for TopBuild Corp (BLD) declined by 3.6% to $1.2 billion, primarily due to weakness in new residential construction.
- The Installation segment experienced a mid-single-digit sales decline, impacted by the residential end market.
- The company incurred onetime costs of $13.9 million related to noncash lease impairment charges from facility consolidations.
- Adjusted gross profit margin decreased by 70 basis points to 29.6%, driven by lower sales volume and pressure on distribution pricing for residential products.
- TopBuild Corp (BLD) adjusted its residential sales outlook to a high single-digit decline for the full year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market.
