An analyst from Morgan Stanley, Meta Marshall, has adjusted the price target for Axon (AXON, Financial), raising it from $635 to $695 while maintaining an Overweight rating for the stock. This revision follows Axon's impressive first-quarter performance, where both non-GAAP revenue and EBITDA exceeded expectations. The positive results were largely propelled by the strong performance in their Software and Services divisions.
The company's upbeat outlook on future bookings suggests sustained growth, which strengthens Morgan Stanley's confidence in Axon's market position. This optimistic view supports the argument for Axon's premium valuation, reflecting its consistent growth execution and strong competitive edge.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON, Financial) is $665.11 with a high estimate of $800.00 and a low estimate of $491.36. The average target implies an upside of 10.52% from the current price of $601.82. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 17 brokerage firms, Axon Enterprise Inc's (AXON, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON, Financial) in one year is $435.56, suggesting a downside of 27.63% from the current price of $601.82. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) Summary page.
AXON Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 07, 2025
- Revenue: $604 million, increased 31% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 25.7%.
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): $1.1 billion, increased 34% year-over-year.
- Software and Services Revenue: $263 million, increased 39% year-over-year.
- Connected Devices Revenue: $341 million, grew 26% year-over-year.
- Adjusted Gross Margin: 63.6%, up 40 basis points year-over-year.
- Adjusted Operating Expenses: $236 million, down 140 basis points year-over-year.
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 123%.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion, 27% annual growth at midpoint.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $650 million to $675 million, maintaining 25% margin target.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON, Financial) reported a 31% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue, reaching $604 million, marking the 13th consecutive quarter with over 25% growth.
- The company achieved a 25.7% adjusted EBITDA margin and $1.1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), reflecting strong financial performance.
- Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) has seen rapid adoption of its TASER 10, with orders pacing at twice the rate of TASER 7, indicating strong market demand.
- International bookings are off to a strong start, with significant demand in regions such as Australia, Latin America, Canada, Asia, the UK, and Europe.
- The company has successfully diversified its supply chain to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, ensuring better service to customers.
Negative Points
- The company faces potential impacts from tariffs, which are expected to affect the adjusted EBITDA margin by approximately 50 basis points for the full year.
- There are ongoing challenges with federal budget uncertainties, which could impact the volume of opportunities in the federal market.
- Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) is still navigating hurdles related to its new headquarters project in Arizona, with some political opposition and obstacles remaining.
- The company is experiencing some supply constraints for its new fixed mobile hardware products, which may limit revenue impact this year.
- There is a risk of slower adoption of AI-related products in jurisdictions that are more skeptical of police technology, potentially affecting sales.
