UBS has increased its price target for Nutrien (NTR, Financial) from $52 to $56 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The adjustment follows a weaker-than-expected performance in the first quarter, although the firm anticipates a slight improvement in the second quarter, according to a recent analyst update.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 20 analysts, the average target price for Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) is $60.90 with a high estimate of $70.00 and a low estimate of $52.00. The average target implies an upside of 11.39% from the current price of $54.67. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 24 brokerage firms, Nutrien Ltd's (NTR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) in one year is $49.92, suggesting a downside of 8.69% from the current price of $54.67. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Summary page.
NTR Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 20, 2025
- Fertilizer Sales Volumes: Increased by nearly 1 million tons compared to 2023.
- Potash Volumes: Record sales volumes achieved.
- Retail Adjusted EBIT: Totaled $1.7 billion, up 16% from the prior year.
- Potash Adjusted EBITDA: $1.8 billion, down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices.
- Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA: $1.9 billion, relatively flat compared to the prior year.
- Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA: $384 million, down from the prior year.
- Potash Controllable Cash Cost: Reduced by 7% per ton.
- GHG Emissions Intensity: 15% reduction in total scope one and two emissions compared to 2018.
- Dividend Increase: Dividend per share increased 7 times since 2018, totaling a 36% increase.
- Share Repurchases: $290 million deployed, retiring 5.8 million shares since the second half of 2024.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) increased fertilizer sales volumes by nearly 1 million tons compared to 2023, showcasing strong growth in their upstream business.
- The company achieved record potash volumes and progressed nitrogen brownfield expansions at two North American sites, enhancing production capabilities.
- Nutrien Ltd (NTR) improved retail product margins and lowered expenses through business simplification and network optimization, contributing to a 16% increase in retail adjusted EBIT.
- The company accelerated its timeline for achieving $200 million in annual cost savings, expecting to meet this target in 2025.
- Nutrien Ltd (NTR) achieved a 15% reduction in total scope one and two GHG emissions intensity in 2024 compared to the 2018 base year, reflecting progress in sustainability efforts.
Negative Points
- Adjusted EBITA for the potash segment decreased to $1.8 billion from the prior year due to lower net selling prices.
- Phosphate segment performance was impacted by weather-related events and plant outages, resulting in a decrease in adjusted EBITA to $384 million.
- The company faces potential tariff risks that could impact nitrogen, potash, and retail segments, with costs likely to be passed on to US farmers.
- High interest rates in Brazil continue to pose challenges for the agricultural sector, affecting Nutrien Ltd (NTR)'s operations in the region.
- Ammonia prices entered 2025 on a declining trend due to weak application in the fall season and the prospect of new supply entering the market.
